Musings - 2015 Early Free Agency Thoughts

The NFL's "legal tampering period" has begun, so although no deals, including trades, can become official until Tuesday (the start of the new NFL League Year), I wanted to share some thoughts on some of the early breaking news of stars in new homes.  As with any other move, it's easy to give opinions on looking at the move in a bubble, but we all know that each move has an impact on other moves still to come (or moves that won't happen now).  Also, as with any prognostication, the full impact of the move could be years away from being realized.  Still, talking about all of these changes is too much fun to miss out on, so here is the next in our 'Musings' series.

LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for Kiko Alonzo

Chip Kelly's quest to remake the Eagles in the Oregon Ducks image continued this offseason, as the team dealt arguably their best player to Buffalo in exchange for a former Duck who is coming off missing an entire year due to an recurring injury.

I'm not trying to downplay Philly's excess at RB, nor their need at LB.  I'm also not going to say Alonzo is not a talent, because his rookie year in Buffalo proved he is.  But still, I am left wondering if this was really the best haul the Eagles could have gotten for their star back.

In Buffalo, I think McCoy will excel.  Rex Ryan took the Jets to the AFC championship game in his first two years in New York, on the back of some excellent defense and a stout running game.  The Bills already have a good defense in position, and now have the running back he can lean on.  I'm not predicting an AFC Title Game appearance for the Bills this year, but, I am buying on McCoy being a big producer in Buffalo.

If Kiko Alonzo can stay healthy, and this is a big if, the Eagles will have filled an area of need with a very good ball player who knows the system and culture his coach wants.  This cannot be overlooked.  However, I am not sold that putting the band back together will lead Chip Kelly to the promised land in the NFL.  Remember, how many National Titles did the Ducks win under Kelly's watch?  Will they be fun to watch.  Probably.  But the Eagles fan base is a serious group, and they want titles, not touchdowns.  Although his team will be athletic and pose problems for the opposition, I'm not sure this move gets them closer to a Superbowl, and isn't that the goal?

Ndamukong Suh to Miami

Even though it is not official yet, it seems that the race for the big prize of the NFL Free Agency period is already over.  Today, Chris Mortensen reported that the Miami Dolphins have agreed to make Suh the highest paid defensive player in NFL history.  Since the report was confirmed by Adam Schefter and Ian Rappaport, this makes 3 of the 4 on my Mount Rushmore of NFL insiders (John Clayton is the fourth), I have faith this is true.  Within minutes of the story breaking, I started fielding questions about my thoughts on this move, so here they are.

Pros: Suh is a force on the defensive front.  He is a run stuffer extraordinaire, and his presence will free up the LBs to make plays and the DEs to get pressure.  This will help the whole defense immediately.  He is a mean man in the trenches, and this will make all of the QBs he faces uneasy.  I am sure Brady wont be sleeping well tonight.

Cons: Suh's name carries more weight than his overall game right now.  I wouldn't call him one dimensional, but, his game against the run far exceeds his performance against the pass.  Calling him the best free agent since Reggie White is absurd.  Further, he is not a better defender than JJ Watt, so paying him like that is a bad move.  Finally, this contract can quickly become an albatross for the Phins.  Signing Suh at this figure will prevent Miami for making other moves which would help the team improve.  I think they would have been better off signing Mike Iupati, Brooks Reed, and reupping with Jared Odrick for less money combined, than adding Suh.

Bottom line here is that Miami has gotten better.  They landed the big fish (bad pun intended) of this class, but unfortunately, since they were not 1 player away from the Lonbardi Trophy, I think they came up short.  Expensive, but short.


Byron Maxwell and Frank Gore to Philly
No doubt it would have been nice for Bay Area fans to have watched Frank Gore finish his career in San Francisco, but it does not look like this will be the case.  He is reportedly going to join Darren Sproles in the Philly backfield next year.  In addition, the Eagles will address their need at corner by adding the best corner on the market with Byron Maxwell.

Overall, I like both of these moves.  The Eagles have to get better against the pass, and Maxwell has been learning under the game's best defenses since coming into the league.  I think he is ready for a bigger role, and in Philly he will get it.  His grit will play well with the fans and the media and help bring a blue collar attitude back to this defense.

Frank Gore is not the player he was even three years ago, but as long as the Eagles understand that he is not LeSean McCoy, and instead use him as a change of pace to Darren Sproles, I think this will also be a good signing.  Gore is an excellent locker room guy, and although he has a lot of miles on his wheels, I still think he can contribute in a more limited role.


Ingram, Cobb, Flowers, and Jackson all Resign
Sometimes the best moves a team makes in free agency are the moves to keep their players from skipping town.  With the four names above, I think that will apply.

Mark Ingram has been a disappointment for much of his time in New Orleans, but last year he started to flash.  Clearly Micky Loomis and company feel this was the start of something more, because they chose to prevent him from leaving town.  If Ingram continues to build on his performance from a year ago, this will be a win for both sides.

Randall Cobb is in the perfect system for his talents.  In fact right now it can be argued he is the best number two receiver in the game today.  Staying in Green Bay will allow for that team to continue to click offensively.  Granted, I think the Pack paying 10M/year for a number two is steep, but I think it would have been more costly for the team to have watched him walk out the door.

Two years ago, Brandon Flowers was a free agency bust in Kansas City.  Last year, he joined the Chargers, and along with rookie Jason Verrett, formed one of the better CB duos in the league.  For the Chargers to continue their assent towards the top of the AFC, they had to keep Flowers, and they did.  I really like this pair of corners, and it will allow the Bolts to focus on other areas of need.

For the first year or three of his career, I called Kareem Jackson a bust.  I thought the Texans completely missed by drafting this kid.  Fast forward to today, and I applaud the organization for bringing him back.  Each year as a pro, Jackson has gotten better.  He will not be confused for Darrell Revis or Richard Sherman any time soon, but he is now a better than average starter in the league.  Had he left, he would have been overpaid by someone to be their savior at corner, and I think that could have ended badly for both sides.  Staying however, will allow him to continue to improve in a system he knows, where the expectations are clear, known, and reasonable.  The Texans are a team on the rise, so keeping him in Houston I think was smart for them too.


As the frenzy that will be the next 7 days continues to unfold, I will continue to post some additional musings.  Until then, enjoy this week.  Right now, everyone is in first place, and your team will make some moves which could place them on a "path to a championship."



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