The most common type of Mock Draft you will see is the one where the mocker tries to predict what each team will do with their pick. These are fun, but to me, provide very little in terms of value. This doe not help me understand what the mocker thinks of the players who are embarking on their NFL careers.
As those of you who have been following me from my days of writing on EZ Football Futures, you know that the mocks I write are nothing like these typical mocks. Rather than try my hand at prognostication, I instead place myself in the role of each GM, and tell you about the selection I would make at that pick, based on my assessment of the team's needs, and my evaluation of the players.
I rarely publish my "big board", but that sometime leads to confusion with my readers because it is hard to understand what I see or don't see in some of the players.
Today's article will be about the highs and lows of this year's crop of NFL rookies. More specifically, I will talk about some players who I have rated significantly higher, or lower than where they are falling in the "expert opinions" you may be reading from other sites.
Before I get into the details though, let me give you some insight into my process. First, I believe in the tape. To me, I place a much higher value on what I can learn from watching the tape on players than what they do at the combine. There are way to many stories of guys who work out like Tarzan and play like Jane, for me to put too much faith in their workout numbers. Also, today almost all combine invitees train to do well in the drills at the combine. They train with experts on how to shave an additional .2 off their forty time, but how does that make them a better football player? This leads to way too many players who suffer from the "Mike Mamula Effect" for me to place too much stock in workouts.
Another thing I place a large value on is intelligence. Not simply book smarts, but Football IQ. There are no drills out there which will measure a players ability to read, diagnose, and react to what is happening on the field. As a result, we lose track of players like Chris Borland, who despite low "measurables" are excellent football players because they have excellent instincts combine with a high Football IQ. You can only see that in a player by watching them in action, so I trust the tape.
Now lets take a look at a few players who I am down on, as compared to their ADP (average draft position) in the most popular mock drafts out there.
Lows
Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
Many of the experts out there now have Kevin White listed as their top WR, over Amari Cooper. To me, this is crazy. Yes, Kevin White is talented, and he has prototypical size. He is fast on the film, and on the track, but for me that is where it ends. His route running is sub-par in my opinion, and White showed success for one year only. One year wonders make me nervous.
Still, this is not my only knock against White. For me, the bigger issue is White is a product of the system. Year after year, Dana Holgorsen's Mountaineers continue to produce athletic phenoms, which make NFL execs drool, yet fail to deliver on all that potential in the pros. Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, Steadman Bailey, and Charles Simms, are some of the more recent names who were highly touted WVU players who failed to reach their potential at the pro level. For me, White feels like the next in this line.
He does have the upside because of his physical skills and size, but to rate him ahead of Cooper is crazy to me. On my board, he is much closer to Devante Parker (rated 3 amongst the WRs) than Cooper (rated 1 amongst the WRs).
Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
In the NFL, the ability to get after the QB is paramount. If your defense struggles at applying pressure, NFL QBs will pick you apart. This is why there is such a premium placed on pass rushers during the draft. Getting pressure makes the whole defense better.
When you look at the statistics, Shane Ray looks like he should be a top 5 pick. He showed the ability to consistently apply pressure to opposing signal callers, especially last year. However, this is another example of why it is so important to watch the tape rather than just relying on the numbers.
When you watch tape of Ray what you see is a guy who gets after the QB, using one specific trait, his speed. Now speed is fine, and for pass rushers it should absolutely be a weapon in your pass rushing arsenal. Unfortunately for Ray, it seems as this is his only weapon. In the NFL you have to have a multitude of ways to get at the QB. You need a few good power moves to go along with some of your speed moves, otherwise, you become predictable and ineffective.
In college, Shane Ray lined up against some future NFL players, but he also faced some future business men, UPS drivers, journalists, and the like. The difference between the best and the rest at the collegiate level is huge as compared to what it is at the NFL. NFL tackles are too good to get beat by the same speed rush move play after play, and Shane Ray is a "one trick pony" at this point.
Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
Bud Dupree is another player who in my opinion lacks the variety in his game to be consistently effective at the next level. A lot like Shane Ray, Dupree feasted on guys who were slower than him, and was able to generate a lot of pressure off the edge, relying on his speed.
Also like Ray, he is going to have to add a slew of additional tactics to his game if he is going to be a long term contributor as a pro. The good news is that tactics can be coached into a player. If Dupree lands in the right system, with the right coaches and veteran mentors, he has the tools to develop his game. But considering that I see him as a few years off, I would not select Dupree in the first round, as some of the experts are projecting. To me he is a solid second round pick.
Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon
When I watch tape, sometimes, I keep my focus on one single player and try to analyze his play. Other times though, I just sit back and watch with what I call "blurry vision" and see what jumps out at me. If I were to take the national title game this season off the table, there was not another game during this past year where Arik Armstead jumped off the tape at me. Not one. Armstead played in a bunch of games during his time at Oregon, and he completed disappeared from too many plays for me to grade him as high as some of the other experts.
Armstead does have some good athleticism, and his size should be good enough for him to be able to hold up to the physical demands of a defensive lineman at the next level. This, along with his measurables at the combine translate into potential. Sure, there is value in potential, but not enough value that I would pick him in the middle of the first round, as I have seen some prognosticating. To me, I could see a good team taking a flier on him at the end of the first, but I would feel better about getting him in the second.
Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Peat is another player who some scouts seem to be in love with, and I just don't see it. There are plenty of guys with more physical ability that Peat available, that I would rather take to play OT on my team.
Peat is a smart ball player, and he earns credit for that on my board, but he is also a product of the system, in my opinion. In fact, if we look at other recently touted Stanford o-line prospects, I see a pattern of over-hyped, under-performing NFL players. I fell squarely in the camps that talked about how good both Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro would be at the NFL level, and neither have really lived up to expectations at this point.
I think a lot of what folks are hyping up about Peat has more to do with the system at Stanford than it does with traits inherent to Peat. This is why I have him behind 5 other guys at the OT position on my board.
Highs
The guys in this section I think are going to be very good players at the next level, and for one or more reasons, are being currently devalued by the experts.
TJ Yeldon, RB, Alabama
In my opinion Yeldon is getting lost in the crowd, being part of one of the deepest RB classes in a long time. There are a lot of talented guys in this group, but Yeldon should be in the discussion. When I look at tape of Yeldon, I see a patient runner with good burst, excellent vision, and a fluidity carrying the ball that make it look natural. All of these are traits you want in an NFL RB.
I think what hurts Yeldon the most is the system he is coming from. Teams are going to be wary of Alabama RBs, especially after the recent struggles of over hyped players like Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. But what people are forgetting is that Yeldon is a very different runner than these guys, and I think he has the potential to be very good at the next level. On my board, he is rated above guys like Jay Ajayi (who I also like a lot), Tevin Coleman, David Cobb, and David Johnson.
Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
Like the RB position, this year's wide receiver class is loaded. With all of the talent to choose from, some guys are being overlooked, and I see Phillip Dorsett as one of them. Sure, he doesn't have the size of a Dorial Beckham Green, nor the athleticism of Kevin White, but Phillip Dorsett is an excellent receiver who could be very productive at the next level.
Many experts show Dorsett as a second round pick in the draft. I can see that only because of the sheer number of intriguing receivers who are available. But in this pass happy league, you have to have guys who can reel in all of these passes, and if Doresett does actually fall into the second round, someone is going to get themselves a steal.
Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA
In today's NFL, the 3-4 defense has become the choice du jour for defensive coordinators. As a result, a lot of successful collegiate DEs either switching to OLB, or being left as players without a "true" position. Odighizuwa (pronounced OH-diggy-zoo-wa), is one of these guys. When I watch him play, I see a long, lean, fast pass rusher. Sure he could benefit from adding some more muscle to his frame, but in the end, I see a lot of Jason Taylor in Odighizuwa's game.
If he lands in a 4-3 system which will allow him to use his length to his advantage he could be a very good contributor, very quickly. The way the New York Giants have utilized Jason Pierre Paul, is similar to how a team will have to use Odighizuwa, but he has the upside to be every bit as productive as JPP.
Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan
When I watch the tape of Ryan controlling the middle of the field in Ann Arbor, I see a guy who has all of the intangibles that are needed to become successful linebackers in the NFL. Although he is not fast, Ryan has excellent instincts, and takes good angles to the ball, cutting down the distance he has to cover, thus making him play faster than he measures. Ryan consistently shows excellent play diagnosis skills, helping him get into good position to be around the ball. He also shows excellent discipline, allowing him to stay in good position to make the play.
Ryan is undersized though, and he absence of prototypical size and ideal measurables, will result in him falling down draft boards. Last year I spent a lot of pre-draft time talking about how I felt Chris Borland deserved second round consideration. Ryan is not quite Borland, but he is good, so getting him the the third round would be a value add for someone.
Cedric Thompson, S, Minnesota
Thompson was one of the guys who was not invited to attend the combine in Indy last month. Every year there are guys who miss the call to Indy, but get drafted and become successful pros nonetheless. I fully anticipate Cedric Thompson being another guy who takes that path.
At his pro day, Thompson put on a show, and this got a lot of folks attention, but the truth is, if you were watching any Minnesota Gophers football this year, you already knew about Thompson. He is a very fluid athlete, and he is not afraid to get in on a tackle, nor fall into coverage.
His lack of a national stage, and his absence at the combine will result in him falling to a later position in this draft, but he is the fourth highest rated Safety on my board, and I suspect whoever does send up the card with Thompson's name scrawled across it will be quite pleased they did.
Submit a design or vote in the Fantasy Fanalytics Logo Contest.
Follow us on Twitter for even more Starts and Sits: @EZandtheGinny
No comments:
Post a Comment