Friday, March 13, 2015

EZ Does It - Free Agency Update

Right about now football fans all around the country are either elated with their team's offseason progress, and are thinking they could be in the mix next season, or they are channeling their inner Rob Schneider and thinking, "Oh no.  We suck again".

Well friends, as we all know, the NFL is not like the NBA.  In this league, the offseason champion is often times not even around for the playoff push, let alone the Superbowl.  But it is March, and with March comes Spring, and with Spring hope is eternal, so lets take a look at how teams have faired so far this offseason.

We are going to break the league into three groups: On the Upswing, Holding Steady, and Going the Wrong Way.  Teams will be listed alphabetically in each group so don't read any rankings into this.  A lot of this grade will be dependent on how well teams have done with the first wave of free agency.  But lets remember, that the draft is yet to come, and there will be more signings over then next few weeks, and into the early summer which will make an impact too.  But for now....

On the Upswing

Arizona Cardinals: Looking only at volume, the Cards have lost almost as many players as they have gained, but I think the quality of their additions slightly outweighs their losses.  LaMarr Woodley and Sean Weatherspoon could be very welcome additions if they can find some of their old form, and I like Cory Redding to soften the loss of Dan Williams and Darnell Dockett.  But their gem addition is Mike Iupati, who was the highest rated interior lineman available, according to me (and a whole bunch of experts).  Paired with last year's addition of Jared Veldheer, the left side of this line is set for the next 5 years.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have had a quiet offseason, but despite their moves being 'under the radar', this team has improved.  Adding Justin Durant will offset the loss of Sean Weatherspoon, and the additions of Brooks Reed and O'Brien Schofield (who follows new HC Dan Quinn's from Seattle) will make this defense better.  They still need help with the pass rush, and no, I don't think Adrian Clayborn is that answer, but they are better now than they were a month ago.

Buffalo Bills: So far this offseason, only the Eagles have been more active at grabbing headlines than the Bills, and Buffalo has done an excellent job of closing the gap in the AFC East.  Shady McCoy is one of the best backs in the league, and Percy Harvin is an explosive player who will bring an additional element to this offense.  These two playmakers make this team better, easily offsetting the loss of CJ Spiller.  Their defense is a bit weaker without Alonzo and Searcy, but those two can be replaced via the draft or additional signings.  They still need a QB though.  Adding Cassel from Minnesota wont cut it.

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have had one of the best offseasons thus far.  They have been smart and not sacrificed any part of their long term plan in the name of short term gains.  5 significant veteran additions, and all 5 could play a role in this team reaching that next level.  I love the addition of Frank Gore, for multiple reasons, including the flexibility it provides GM Ryan Grigson during the draft.  Andre Johnson should be able to replace Reggie Wayne quite nicely, and the addition of Trent Cole adds another leader, and great character guy to the locker room, and field.  

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags are a team that was pretty bad last season, so they had a lot of holes to fill, and not a lot of players other teams were clamoring for.  Still, they have done an excellent job of capitalizing on their excellent cap situation, and have been hard at work.  The gem of this crop is obviously Julius Thomas from Denver, who will create match up problems for all of Jacksonville's opponents next year.  But do not overlook the value of the Jared Odrick signing.  Odrick has been an under appreciated piece of Miami;s defensive front, and in his new home, he should have the chance to turn it up a level.  

Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs had to get better at receiver this offseason, and give Alex Smith some legitimate weapons.  Enter Jeremy Maclin from Philly.  Maclin is already familiar with Andy Reid's system from their time together, and he can stretch a field, as he proved last year.  They still need some more help, but the draft is only 6 weeks away.  I didn't like to see KC part ways with Rodney Hudson, and adding Ben Grubbs is not a full offset of this loss, but overall KC is at a slight net positive to date.

Miami Dolphins: It is hard to add the best player available in free agency and not make it onto the "getting better" list.  The addition of Suh could very well have a major impact on the rest of the defense, and no doubt that Tom Brady is less comfortable now than he was only three weeks ago.  Still, the addition of Kenny Stills was offset by the loss of Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and Brandon Gibson, and the money spent on Suh will keep the Phins tight to the cap for the foreseeable future.  Jordan Cameron may be the difference maker here.  If he is healthy, that could have been the heist of the offseason.

New York Jets: This team had one of the worst secondaries in the league last year, and in the course of three days, they have completely overhauled it to become one of the better ones.  The new GM brought the old band back together.  Sure Revis and Cromartie are older than when they left, but they can still play.  Add in Buster Skrine and Marcus Gilchrist and you are on your way.  Brandon Marshall is always a risk with his behavior, but when he is locked in he is fierce, and paired with Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley, they have some weapons now.  As for QB, well...

Oakland Raiders:  Like the Jaguars, this team would have had to work very hard to have not improved.  Still, I like some of their moves thus far.  Rodney Hudson is a top 5 center in the league.  Did they overpay?  Yes.  Did they have to to get better.  Yes.  Dan Williams, Nate Allen, Malcolm Smith, and Roy Helu will each be called upon to contribute next season too. I even think Curtis Lofton has a little left in the tank, although I am weary of adding much more veteran talent like last offseason.

Seattle Seahawks: It was without a doubt one of the biggest surprises in league history when we all learned that Jimmy Graham had been dealt from the Saints.  And to add his immense talent to the most talent laden team in the league was crazy.   But the Seahawks have had some losses this offseason too.  Adding Cary Williams will not offset loosing Byron Maxwell, and the loss of Max Unger in the Graham deal will be more significant than some think.  But even with these hits, the addition of Graham to this offense will be tough for the rest of the league to overcome.

St Louis Rams: Getting rid of Sam Bradford's contract was a gain, and adding both Foles and draft pick compensation was another plus.  But the move that placed the Rams in this top group was the addition of Akeem Ayers.  Very few folks have been talking about this addition, but I think this was an excellent move for them, as he is a perfect fit in this defense, and they now can focus almost all of their draft on the offensive side of the ball.  The addition of Nick Fairly as a depth DT was a luxury add for the team.

Tennessee Titans: Another bad team, with almost no where to go but up.  The loss of Ayers could have been painful, but they did an excellent job at replacing him with Brian Orakpo.  Harry Douglas will be a nice addition to the receiving corp, and Da'Norris Searcy will help out in the secondary from his first day in that locker room.  Also, don't under estimate the value of the Derrick Morgan re-signing.  So far so good for the Titans.


Holding Steady

Carolina Panthers: Thus far this offseason, the Panthers haven't done too much.  They let go of DeAngelo Williams, but I am not sure that was a huge loss.  They added Ted Ginn and Michael Oher, but these would be considered minimal gains.  Overall, not much action.  David Gettleman seems to like to make his impact felt during the draft anyhow, so this may still turn out just fine for the Panthers.

Chicago Bears: The Bears have been active, but I think the losses have really offset the gains so far. I really like the addition of Parnell McPhee from Baltimore, but I think the loss of Marshall hurts this offense a lot.  Rolle is okay at this point in his career, but not really a major upgrade over Conte.  Melton and Paea being gone in the middle wont hurt too much, as they are both fairly replaceable.  All in all, stronger in some spots, weaker in others.

Cincinnati Bengals: I am happy that AJ Hawk was able to find his way back to his home state when he was released by the Packers, but his addition although nice, is not enough to put this team in the category of "improved".  And unfortunately for Cincy, that is pretty much all they have done so far this offseason.  If they do in fact bring Michael Johnson back now that he has been released from Tampa, the Bengals could find themselves moving on up.

Green Bay Packers: For every Ying, there is a Yang.  And for every Cincinnati there is a Green Bay.  Adding AJ Hawk alone was not enough to move the Bengals up, nor was loosing him enough to move the Packers down.  Hawk was a good player, but Green Bay will be able to find someone else to help in the middle.  They resigned both Bulaga and Cobb, and that keep everything in check for this team, so far.

Minnesota Vikings: When I found out that the Vikes acquired Mike Wallace from Miami I almost moved them to the upper category on this list.  Almost.  Wallace does give them another weapon, maybe.  It depends if they get the Mike Wallace from Pittsburgh or the Mike from Miami.  If he can stretch the field and give young Teddy Bridgewater the deep weapon they thought they had in Cordarelle Patterson, then this will be a win.  If he continues to fight with coaches, and take himself out of the game, this will be just an expensive mistake.

New York Giants: The G-men have been awfully quite thus far in the offseason.  They added Shane Vereen early in the week, and he is a nice addition, but alone, will not change much for the team.  They lost Antrell Rolle and Walter Thurmond, but neither guy will be missed much.  So in the end, the team is pretty much where they ended last year.  Not bad, but not improved yet either.

Philadelphia Eagles: An old boss once told me busy and productive are not always the same thing. This quote came back to me while watching the almost frantic moves by Chip Kelly this past month.  Foles, McCoy, Maclin, Williams, Allen, Cole, and Herremans are all gone.  Murray, Matthews, Maxwell, Alonzo, Bradford, and Thurman have all arrived.  But are the Eagles really better?  Are they worse?  At this point, I don't think either.  Murray and Matthews are good replacements for McCoy, but again, 1 football, and 3 legit RBs.  A healthy Bradford is a little better than Foles, but will he stay healthy?  Having no wide outs will hurt, but the secondary has improved.  The D-line is weaker, but the linebackers are stronger.  Right now it seems there has been a whole lot of busy, but I am not sure that there has been any production.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is a team that builds through the draft, so I am not surprised at this point to see them maintaining the status quo.  They have some needs, and they lost a little with the retirement of Jason Worlids, but they will likely make sound additions with the draft to start to fill some their holes on defense.  Adding a back-up RB in DeAngelo Williams was nice, but not groundbreaking in any way.

San Diego Chargers: The Bolts are a team on the cusp, and it could be argued that the additions of Orlando Franklin to the offensive front and Jacoby Jones to the receiving corp made this team better, but they lost Marcus Gilchrist from the secondary, and their best RB, albeit one who is hurt almost as frequently as he is not.  If the team makes some smart picks during the draft, this could still be a successful offseason.  If not, well they may continue to be "one year away".

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: As bad as the Bucs were, I am surprised they haven't done more yet this offseason.  They have been rumored to be in the mix for AP, but that has yet to materialize.  So as of now the team is trying to add through subtraction.  Johnson and Collins are both gone to rectify mistakes from a year ago, and Goldson looks to be headed out too.  The additions of Conte, Melton, and Bruce Carter leave me feeling somewhat underwhelmed.  There is still time left for the Bucs to do something, and they are on the clock, but as of now, not too much improvement, and it would be hard to get worse.

Washington Redskins: This team seems destined to remain "questing for mediocrity" as long as Daniel Snyder is writing the checks.  They added Terrance Knighton which will help their maligned defensive front, but then they loose both Helu and Orakpo, which ding them a bit.  This team consistently seems to take one step forward, just to take one step back.


Going the Wrong Way

Baltimore Ravens:  When you are good, your players become targets in the offseason.  This year, the Ravens again find themselves in this position.  So far they have made no major additions, but they have lost a bunch.  Losing McPhee, Jones, Torey Smith, and Owen Daniels will hurt this team, but trading away Haloti Ngata could be downright devastating.  If not for their resigning of Justin Forsett, the Ravens offseason could be the worst in the NFL thus far.

Cleveland Browns: Can anyone step in and help the Browns please.  This is getting downright comical.  Every time they start down the right path, something has to derail this franchise.  The added Josh McCown this offseason, but is he any better than Brian Hoyer who left town?  They added Brian Hartline who can be a good complimentary piece to the receiving corp, but lost a good pass rusher in Jabal Sheard.  Watching Jordan Cameron skip town though pushes the Browns from a mid pack rating to the bottom grouping.  At least this is something they and their fans are used to though.

Dallas Cowboys: At the end of last season, Dallas fans were left hopeful, and optimistic.  They had some holes on the D, but the offense was in good hands.  Now, the largest part of that offense from a year ago (statistically speaking) is playing for a division rival, and the addition of the oft injured Darren McFadden has done very little to ease that pain.  By the way, that defense with some opportunities, lost three of their best from a year ago in Carter, Durant, and Rolando McClain.  I guess we will see if Rod Marinelli really is a magician.

Denver Broncos: When you are a very good team, whose window of opportunity is almost closed, this is not the section of this list you want to be in, but that is exactly where the Broncos find themselves.  With this being Mr Manning's swan song, the team has one last shot at the crown, but loosing Julius Thomas and replacing him with Owen Daniels is not a wash.  Not even close.  Throw in the departures of Pot Roast Knighton, Rahim Moore, and Orlando Franklin, and you see why things are not pointing up for new HC Gary Kubiak in his return to the mile high city.

Detroit Lions:  It is very difficult to not be worse off after loosing the most feared defensive tackle in football, entering his prime, on a hall-of-fame career arc.  Unfortunately for Detroit, that is exactly what happened when Suh signed in South Florida.  Then they also lost their other starting DT as well as Fairly jumped ship.  The addition of Haloti Ngata was phenomenal, but it is not enough to fully offset the losses.  

Houston Texans: When you force the best player in your franchise's history out the door, you need to have a plan in place, and at the moment, I just don't see why the Texans were in such a hurry to send Andre Johnson packing.  Right now they have themselves a new gaping hole at wide out, and they still have all of their other holes to fill.  Rahim Moore is a step in that direction, but it is not enough thus far.

New England Patriots: Patriots fans nation wide have gotten in the habit of laughing at all football writer during this time of year.  Every year it seems that the whole world predicts the demise of the Pats, and writes them up as big losers during the offseason, but every year they win the division and are in the chase for the Lombardi.  This year they see key part Shane Vereen, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Browner leave for "greener pastures", while all they added back was Brandon Gibson, Jabal Sheard, and Scott Chandler.  So yet again, they are at the bottom of the offseason standings.  But will it matter next December?

New Orleans Saints: I guess if the question is has the window of opportunity closed on the Saints, we now know the answer is yes.  Clearly, the team has entered into rebuilding mode.  They have sent Stills, Graham, and Grubbs out of town so far, and veterans Pierre Thomas and Curtis Lofton have also departed.  Max Unger is a nice piece to have added, but he is not a player who you build around, so I am still left wondering if Mickey Loomis really intends to use Mark Ingram as his centerpiece for this rebuild he has embarked upon?  Because right now, Ingram, and aging Brees, and the very young  Brandin Cooks is all he has left.

San Francisco 49ers:  This has been a tumultuous offseason so far for the 49ers.  They have seen their best defensive player, Patrick Willis, retire, and they could watch DE Justin Smith follow him out.  Mike Iupati, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Perrish Cox, and Dan Skuta also all have new addresses too, so this a definitely a depleted team. Torrey Smith is a nice receiver, but he is suited for a "2" role, and Anquan Boldin already has that spot filled.  Darnell Docket also climbs aboard, but right now the needle is pointing the wrong way for Jim Tomsula and Trent Balke. 









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