EZ Does It - Mock Draft 2

With the first wave of free agency over, the needs of teams have changed, and in some cases drastically.  For example, in our last Mock Draft, in filling the role of NO GM Mickey Loomis, I had no thought of taking a TE.  Now, with Jimmy Graham gone, I need to consider that.  Also, when the Jets were on the clock, I had to strongly consider drafting CBs.  But with the signings of Revis, Cromartie, and Skrine, I think we can call that one covered.

In addition, I have had the time to watch more tape on more of these players, so my opinions on where exactly they fall on my draft board have changed.  This impacts what I would do as the GM of each team when on the clock.

Finally, remember, this is what I think should happen on draft weekend, not what I think will happen.  Lets roll three rounds deep this time.  Tampa Bay is on the clock.

1.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU

My concerns with drafting Winston first overall still lie with his immaturity, and off the field concerns.  If you are going to be the face of a professional football team, you have to carry yourself professionally.  I'm not sure if Jameis can do that.  Still, he is the most talented QB in this class, and the Bucs really need some help.  Maybe I pick him and hire Derrick Brooks to be his personal shadow.

2.       Tennessee Titans - Leonard Williams, DL, USC

Williams is still the top overall player on my board, and I suspect the weak defensive front of the Titans will get better with his addition.  He has the skills to play inside on a 4-3 front, or he can set the edge for the 3-4 fronts.  This flexibility, plus his overall skill set make him an easy choice for Tennessee here.

3.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler Jr, LB, Florida

If I was calling the shots in Jacksonville, I would shop this pick to see who wants to move up for Marriota.  Since this mock does not allow trades, I instead select Fowler. He is an excellent athlete, and shows good positional skills for a linebacker.  He is the top rated LB on my board, and he can become the cornerstone this defense will ultimately build around.

4.       Oakland Raiders - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

This was a very difficult selection for me.  I discussed in an article last week why I have Cooper rated higher than White.  The challenge in this pick wasn't Cooper vs White.  It was Cooper vs Trae Waynes.  Oakland has desprate needs for playmakers at both positions, and both are worthy of this selection.  In the end I chose Cooper because one of the things their young QB needs is targets, and allowing these two to develop together creates more synergy for the Raiders than Carr plus Waynes.

5.       Washington Redskins - Randy Gregory, LB, Nebraska

For the Skins, this pick comes down to potential.  Randy Gregory has some of the best upside in this draft class, and although there is some risk, the gamble seems worth it for a team in need of some stars.  Gregory needs to put on some weight, but he shows the promise to develop into an excellent pass rusher off the edge. The team needs to replace the production Orakpo brought a few years back, and Gregory gives them an excellent chance for that.

6.       New York Jets - Marcus Mariotta, QB, Jets

Many said when the Jets added Fitzpatrick that it proved they would not be in the market for a QB this draft.  I say the exact opposite.  In my mind, who better to mentor a young, talented QB, with exceptional skills than a Harvard graduate with years of experience in the new OC's system? Bottom line here is that I do not believe in Geno, and I think with Mariotta learning from the Beard, this could be an excellent situation for the Jets next season.

7.       Chicago Bears - Malcolm Brown, DT, Texas

Last mock I had Malcolm Brown falling all the way to the Lions near the back end of round 1.  After watching more tape, I say no possible way.  Brown is just way too talented, and I suspect he could help a Chicago defense in desperate need of some skills in the middle of their defensive front.  Although he is not as big as Danny Shelton, I think he is easily the better player, and in the end, I suspect John Fox would rather have more talent than more beef.

8.       Atlanta Falcons - Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa

I know that many will call me crazy with their need at pass rush, the availability of Vic Beasley, and the fact that the Falcons drafted Jake Matthews last year, but let me tell you why I would make this pick.  The Falcons added two good, not great pieces during free agency to try and shore up the linebacker positions.  Justin Durant and Brook Reed were both signed with the idea that they could help make something happen in Dan Quinn's defense.  This doen't preclude them from Beasley, but it does make Sherff the better pick.  Atlanta's line was a mess last year, even after adding Matthews.  Besides, with Matthews on the left and Sherff on the right, Matty Ice stays upright more, and the Falcons have the bookends they need to build a Dallas-like line.

9.       New York Giants - Vic Beasley, LB, Clemson

The Giants would absolutely take either Sherff or Brown if they were available here, but in this scenario, neither are.  They have serious needs on both fronts, so La'el Collins will be a real consideration with this pick too.  With a hole at OLB though, Vic Beasley is too talented for the Giants to pass on.  He comes in as a starter from day one, and provides a pass rushing ability that will make the whole defense better.

10.   St Louis Rams - Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

My article last week went into detail about what my concerns are with White.  Having said that, he is still a receiver with excellent measurables and prototypical size on a team with a real need for a game changer at the position.  This is a risk/reward selection, and the upside is too large to pass on.

11.   Minnesota Vikings - Devante Parker, WR, Louisville

Another pick that I know I am going to get beaten up over.  I know the team added Mike Wallace from Miami last week, and with him and Patterson they have the potential to be an excellent tandem. Unfortunately, Bridgewater is young, and the team does not have the luxury to give him one target who is fast but takes himself out of games, and another who is fast but cannot see to figure out how to run pro routes.  Bridgwater has a familiarity with Parker from their days in Louisville, and with Jennings already cut, Parker still fills a need for Minnesota.

12.   Cleveland Browns - Danny Shelton, NT, Washington

Cleveland has all kinds of holes they need to fill during this draft, so having multiple first round picks is a godsend this year.  One of those holes in at NT, and Danny Shelton is a big boy who plugs holes.  I don't see Shelton as a future superstar, but I do see him as a consistent starting level contributor and right now that is a huge improvement for the Browns.

13.   New Orleans Saints - Eli Harold, LB, Virginia

The rebuild has begun in New Orleans, and as Mickey Loomis said following the Jimmy Graham trade, they really needed to do this to build their defense.  Eli Harold has the makings of a good ballplayer, and I suspect he would fit in quite well on this defense which has some gaping holes at linebacker.  They have another pick at the end of this round which they can also use to fast forward this rebuild.

14.   Miami Dolphins - Jalen Strong, WR, Arizona State

The Dolphins spent a lot of money this offseason, adding the grand prize in Ndmakung Suh to their defense front.  That is good, but after that move (and some others) this team has needs at OG, LB, and WR.  I think if Eli Harold were still on the board, the Phish would pick him, but with him gone they instead give Tannehill another weapon with Strong.  I think Strong has all of the tools to be an excellent receiver at the next level.  He is fast, shows excellent route running, and catches what is thrown at him.  Along with Jarvis Landry, Tannehill would have a really nice pair of young options.

15.   San Francisco 49ers - Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

My lord have the 9ers had a rough start to this offseason.  After playing in the NFC title game 15 months ago, this team is really a shell of itself.  With the retirements of Willis and Borland, many will be clamoring for San Fran to draft a LB, but the truth is they have holes all over this defense, and the fourth best player on my overall board is still available. Waynes is easily the best corner in this class, and has the makings to be a serious shut down player in short order.  Oh, yeah, and the Niners have a need here too.

16.   Houston Texans - Dorial Green Beckham, WR, Missouri

The best player in the history of the Houston Texans has now moved on.  It is my understanding that the brass in Houston told him it was because they wanted him to take a smaller role on this offense.  Now I know they have Nuk Hopkins as their one, but they really need a 2... and a QB,,, and some defensive help too.  Since they wont get everything all with this one pick, they take the most talented guy still available.  Green Beckham has had some behavioral issues, but I think this team has a coaching staff that could keep him in line, and there are very few receivers who have his game.

17.   San Diego Chargers - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Last week the Chargers watched their top RB bolt (pun intended) for Philly.  That really leaves the cupboard bare for Phillip Rivers and company.  Melvin Gordon is one of my favorite overall players in this draft class, and I see him as a true home run hitter for the Chargers.  I think this is an excellent fir for both team and player, and it solidifies San Diego as a legit threat to the AFC crown.

18.   Kansas City Chiefs - Landon Collins, S, Alabama

The situation that KC Safety, Eric Berry is having to deal with is awful, and my payers are with him.  Unfortunately, when you lose one of the top Safeties in the league, it is a hole that has to be filled.  The team still needs some help at WR, but the addition of Maclin reduces the bleeding enough for them to add the best safety in this class.  If Berry is ever able to return to the Chiefs, they will have an embarrassment of riches at the position, but until then, Collins fills a big need.

19.   Cleveland Browns via Buffalo - Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami

As discussed earlier, the Browns have needs all over the field.  After adding Shelton up front to eat up the middle, they now need some youth to help patrol the middle of the defense and make plays.  Many experts have Perryman rated a bit lower on their boards, but I think this kid is a football player.  He has excellent instincts and takes good angles to the ball, which don't show up in measurements at the combine.  He is the top insider backer on my board, and I think the fans in Cleveland will love him.

20.   Philadelphia Eagles - Shane Ray, DE, Missouri

Last week I discussed some of my concerns with Shane Ray, mainly his one-dimensional speed rusher skill set.  This is why on this draft I still have him available where the rest of the world projects him as a top 10 selection.  The Eagles need to be able to get after the passer, and Ray is fast and shows good burst.  If the Mad Scientist is going to get the most out of Ray though, he is going to have to teach him some additional moves to add to his repertoire.

21.   Cincinnati Bengals - Bud Dupree, LB, Kentucky

Dupree is another one-note pass rushing player that I have some concerns about.  Since the signing of Michael Johnson though, the Bengals need to get some pressure from the backers, and that is where Dupree excels.  

22.   Pittsburgh Panthers - Jalen Collins, CB, LSU

Over the last few seasons the Steelers have begun to focus on adding some talented young players to their aging defense.  They have done a good job in the front seven, but now it is time to add some youth to the secondary.  Jalen Collins is an excellent corner.  He does everything well, and will add an element of speed which has been missing from some time from this defensive backfield.

23.   Detroit Lions - Eddie Goldman, DT, FSU

When you lose both of your starters from the DT position, you are going to have a need.  With both Suh and Fairly on to new teams, the Lions made an excellent move to add Haloti Ngata from the cap-strapped Baltimore Ravens.  This is a fantastic addition, but they still need more.  Goldman was another talented piece on an exceptionally talented Seminoles team, and paired with Nagata could keep this as one of the better running defenses in the league.

24.   Arizona Cardinals - Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State

The Cards were one of the bright spots in the NFL for the first 12 weeks of the season, until injuries overran them.  This team obviously has to get deeper, and the linebacking corp is one of the primary areas this team needs to focus on.  McKinney is a thick, strong linebacker who plays very well at the point of attack.  I think he will be very good against the run, and he will fit in well in Arizona.

25.   Carolina Panthers - La'el Collins, OT, LSU

For Collins to still be available at this point in the draft would be a major coup for the Panthers.  They have a greater need at corner in my opinion, however, they are not set at OT by any means.  The addition of Oher will become a nice depth move for this team if they add Collins, who is rated by many at the top OT in this class. 

26.   Baltimore Ravens - Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan

Baltimore is a good team, but they lost a lot in the offseason in terms of talent.  Two such talents who walked out the door were Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones.  This leaves the receivers as the old (but still OK) Steve Smith Sr, and Marlon Brown.  Funchess would step in immediately and give this team some size at the position.  He is still learning to play wide out, but when he figures it all out, his size and body control combination will make him very difficult to cover.

27.   Dallas Cowboys - Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA

After having traded down from Demarco Murray to Darren McFadden in their backfield some will want the Boys to take the talented Todd Gurley.  That would be unwise.  This team has real holes on the defense that was covered up with smoke, mirrors, and other Rod Marinelli magic last year.  They have to improve the roster on this side of the ball and Odighizuwa is one of my favorite players in this class.  He is long, lean, and has the skill set to be an excellent 4-3 DE for many years.  Dallas really needs this kid.

28.   Denver Broncos - Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA

With this being Peyton Manning's final season, I am quite surprised at how little Denver has added, and how much they have lost in what has to be one-last-run for the crown.  Adding Eric Kendrick here gives them a defensive presence in the middle which should help shore things up a bit.  Its is surprising that a team that has been this good for this long, and spent so aggressively last offseason is left with this many holes.

29.   Indianapolis Colts - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

It is my opinion that so far, the Colts have had the best offseason of anyone in the league.  This was a very good team at the end of last year, and adding players like Andre Johnson, Trent Cole, Kendall Langford, and Frank Gore make this team better.  The addition of Gore allows for Indy to add their RB of the future in the immensely talented Gurley without have to rush him onto the field.  They can let him heal up completely, then spell Gore as the season grows long, and eventually replace him fully next season.

30.   Green Bay Packers - Jordan Phillips, NT, Oklahoma

The Packers best moves in free agency this year was ensuring they kept both Randall Cobb and Bryan Bulaga.  Now they can focus on improving rather than replacing.  One of the holes this team had was in the middle of their defensive front, and with BJ Raji not expected to return, the addition of the big bodied Jordan Phillips will be a welcome one indeed.  Phillips can plug holes, and help occupy blockers so the linebackers can make plays.

31.   New Orleans Saints via Seattle - Paul Dawson, LB, TCU

This pick comes to New Orleans, along with very good Center Max Unger, in the Jimmy Graham deal.  Having already added Eli Harold on defense, the Saints would be best served to continue to add defensive pieces, and Paul Dawson would be an excellent one at this point.  I would suspect like Harold, Dawson would step in as an opening day starter for this team, replacing Curtis Lofton.  Of all of the inside backers in this draft, Dawson has the best upside, so grabbing him here is a real value.

32.   New England Patriots - Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon

Long term stalwart, Vince Wilfork has moved on to Texas this offseason, and the Pats have to do something to replace him.  Armstead is not cut in the same mold as Wilfork, but would be a valuable piece to the Super Bowl Champs puzzle, if he shows that his performance in the National Title game was the beginning of him reaching his potential, and not just a spark of something to never be seen again.  Armstead has all of the tools, but to date has been an under performer.  If anyone can get the best out of him though, it would be Bill Belichick.

33.   Tennessee Titans - DJ Humphries, OT, Florida

34.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TJ Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

35.   Oakland Raiders - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

36.   Jacksonville Jaguars - Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami

37.   New York Jets - Carl Davis, DT, Iowa

38.   Washington Redskins - Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

39.   Chicago Bears - Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami

40.   New York Giants - Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, TAMU

41.   St Louis Rams - Cameron Erving, C, FSU

42.   Atlanta Falcons - Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota

43.   Cleveland Browns - Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State

44.   New Orleans Saints - Tre Jackson, OG, FSU

45.   Minnesota Vikings - Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson

46.   San Francisco 49ers - Mario Edwards, DE, FSU

47.   Miami Dolphins - Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington

48.   San Diego Chargers - Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke

49.   Kansas City Chiefs - Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

50.   Buffalo Bills - Hau'oli Kikaha, LB, Washington

51.   Houston Texans - AJ Cann, OG, South Carolina

52.   Philadelphia Eagles - Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

53.   Cincinnati Bengals - Derron Smith, S, Fresno State

54.   Detroit Lions - PJ Williams, CB, FSU

55.   Arizona Cardinals - Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA

56.   Pittsburgh Steelers - Ellis McCarthy, NT, UCLA

57.   Carolina Panthers - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

58.   Baltimore Ravens - Michael Bennett, DE, Ohio State

59.   Denver Broncos - James Sample, S, Louisville

60.   Dallas Cowboys - Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska

61.   Indianapolis Colts - Hroniss Grasu, C, Oregon

62.   Green Bay Packers - Ramik Wilson, LB, Georgia

63.   Seattle Seahawks - Josue Matias, OG, FSU

64.   New England Patriots - John Miller, OG, Louisville

65. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas

66. Tennessee Titans - Grady Jarrett, NT, Clemson

67. Jacksonville Jaguars - Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana

68. Oakland Raiders - Nate Orchard, DE, Utah

69.  Washington Redskins - Demarius Randall, S, Arizona State

70.  New York Jets - Lorenzo Mauldin, LB, Louisville

71.  Chicago Bears - Henry Anderson, DE, Stanford

72.  St Louis Rams - Rob Havenstein, OT, Wisconsin

73.  Atlanta Falcons - Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan

74.  New York Giants - Bobby Richardson, DT, Indiana

75.  New Orleans Saints - Clive Walford, TE, Miami

76.  Minnesota Vikings - Jarvis Harrison, OG, TAMU

77.  Cleveland Browns - Nick O'Leary, TE, FSU

78.  New Orleans Saints via Miami - Byron Jones, CB, UConn

79.  San Francisco 49ers - Haynes Pullard, LB, USC

80.  Kansas City Chiefs - BJ Finney, C, Kansas State

81.  Buffalo Bills - Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor

82.  Houston Texans - Kwon Alexander, LB, LSU

83.  San Diego Chargers - Gabe Wright, NT, Auburn

84.  Philadelphia Eagles - Ali Marpet, OG, Hobart

85.  Cincinnati Bengals - Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

86.  Arizona Cardinals - Danielle Hunter, DE, LSU

87.  Pittsburgh Steelers - Cedric Thompson, S, Minnesota

88.  Detroit Lions - Arie Kuandjio, G, Alabama

89.  Carolina Panthers - Justin Hardy, WR, ECU

90.  Baltimore Ravens - Garrett Grayson, QB, Colorado State

91.  Dallas Cowboys - Jordan Hicks, OLB, Texas

92.  Denver Broncos - Darrius Philon, DT, Arkansas

93.  Indianapolis Colts - Durell Eskridge, S, Syracuse

94.  Green Bay Packers - Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon

95.  Seattle Seahawks - Reese Dismukes, C, Auburn

96.  New England Patriots - TJ Yeldon, RB, Alabama

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EZ Does It - Highs and Lows

During this time of year, everyone and their brother releases their Mock Drafts.  These are fun to do because they allow for the conjecture and hope about what may be in store for our favorite teams.  We can dream about what our offense would look like if we just draft Player X or how dominant our defense would be when we pull the trigger to add Player Y.

The most common type of Mock Draft you will see is the one where the mocker tries to predict what each team will do with their pick.  These are fun, but to me, provide very little in terms of value.  This doe not help me understand what the mocker thinks of the players who are embarking on their NFL careers.

As those of you who have been following me from my days of writing on EZ Football Futures, you know that the mocks I write are nothing like these typical mocks.  Rather than try my hand at prognostication, I instead place myself in the role of each GM, and tell you about the selection I would make at that pick, based on my assessment of the team's needs, and my evaluation of the players.

I rarely publish my "big board", but that sometime leads to confusion with my readers because it is hard to understand what I see or don't see in some of the players.

Today's article will be about the highs and lows of this year's crop of NFL rookies.  More specifically, I will talk about some players who I have rated significantly higher, or lower than where they are falling in the "expert opinions" you may be reading from other sites.

Before I get into the details though, let me give you some insight into my process.  First, I believe in the tape.  To me, I place a much higher value on what I can learn from watching the tape on players than what they do at the combine.  There are way to many stories of guys who work out like Tarzan and play like Jane, for me to put too much faith in their workout numbers.  Also, today almost all combine invitees train to do well in the drills at the combine.  They train with experts on how to shave an additional .2 off their forty time, but how does that make them a better football player?  This leads to way too many players who suffer from the "Mike Mamula Effect" for me to place too much stock in workouts.

Another thing I place a large value on is intelligence.  Not simply book smarts, but Football IQ.  There are no drills out there which will measure a players ability to read, diagnose, and react to what is happening on the field.  As a result, we lose track of players like Chris Borland, who despite low "measurables" are excellent football players because they have excellent instincts combine with a high Football IQ.  You can only see that in a player by watching them in action, so I trust the tape.

Now lets take a look at a few players who I am down on, as compared to their ADP (average draft position) in the most popular mock drafts out there.

Lows

Kevin White, WR, West Virginia 

Many of the experts out there now have Kevin White listed as their top WR, over Amari Cooper.  To me, this is crazy.  Yes, Kevin White is talented, and he has prototypical size.  He is fast on the film, and on the track, but for me that is where it ends.  His route running is sub-par in my opinion, and White showed success for one year only.  One year wonders make me nervous.  

Still, this is not my only knock against White.  For me, the bigger issue is White is a product of the system.  Year after year, Dana Holgorsen's Mountaineers continue to produce athletic phenoms, which make NFL execs drool, yet fail to deliver on all that potential in the pros.  Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, Steadman Bailey, and Charles Simms, are some of the more recent names who were highly touted WVU players who failed to reach their potential at the pro level.  For me, White feels like the next in this line.  

He does have the upside because of his physical skills and size, but to rate him ahead of Cooper is crazy to me.  On my board, he is much closer to Devante Parker (rated 3 amongst the WRs) than Cooper (rated 1 amongst the WRs).

Shane Ray, DE, Missouri

In the NFL, the ability to get after the QB is paramount.  If your defense struggles at applying pressure, NFL QBs will pick you apart.  This is why there is such a premium placed on pass rushers during the draft.  Getting pressure makes the whole defense better.

When you look at the statistics, Shane Ray looks like he should be a top 5 pick.  He showed the ability to consistently apply pressure to opposing signal callers, especially last year.  However, this is another example of why it is so important to watch the tape rather than just relying on the numbers.  

When you watch tape of Ray what you see is a guy who gets after the QB, using one specific trait, his speed.  Now speed is fine, and for pass rushers it should absolutely be a weapon in your pass rushing arsenal.  Unfortunately for Ray, it seems as this is his only weapon.  In the NFL you have to have a multitude of ways to get at the QB.  You need a few good power moves to go along with some of your speed moves, otherwise, you become predictable and ineffective.

In college, Shane Ray lined up against some future NFL players, but he also faced some future business men, UPS drivers, journalists, and the like.  The difference between the best and the rest at the collegiate level is huge as compared to what it is at the NFL.  NFL tackles are too good to get beat by the same speed rush move play after play, and Shane Ray is a "one trick pony" at this point.

Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
Bud Dupree is another player who in my opinion lacks the variety in his game to be consistently effective at the next level.  A lot like Shane Ray, Dupree feasted on guys who were slower than him, and was able to generate a lot of pressure off the edge, relying on his speed.

Also like Ray, he is going to have to add a slew of additional tactics to his game if he is going to be a long term contributor as a pro.  The good news is that tactics can be coached into a player.  If Dupree lands in the right system, with the right coaches and veteran mentors, he has the tools to develop his game.  But considering that I see him as a few years off, I would not select Dupree in the first round, as some of the experts are projecting.  To me he is a solid second round pick.

Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon
When I watch tape, sometimes, I keep my focus on one single player and try to analyze his play.  Other times though, I just sit back and watch with what I call "blurry vision" and see what jumps out at me.  If I were to take the national title game this season off the table, there was not another game during this past year where Arik Armstead jumped off the tape at me.  Not one.  Armstead played in a bunch of games during his time at Oregon, and he completed disappeared from too many plays for me to grade him as high as some of the other experts.

Armstead does have some good athleticism, and his size should be good enough for him to be able to hold up to the physical demands of a defensive lineman at the next level.  This, along with his measurables at the combine translate into potential.  Sure, there is value in potential, but not enough value that I would pick him in the middle of the first round, as I have seen some prognosticating.  To me, I could see a good team taking a flier on him at the end of the first, but I would feel better about getting him in the second.

Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Peat is another player who some scouts seem to be in love with, and I just don't see it.  There are plenty of guys with more physical ability that Peat available, that I would rather take to play OT on my team.

Peat is a smart ball player, and he earns credit for that on my board, but he is also a product of the system, in my opinion.  In fact, if we look at other recently touted Stanford o-line prospects, I see a pattern of over-hyped, under-performing NFL players.  I fell squarely in the camps that talked about how good both Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro would be at the NFL level, and neither have really lived up to expectations at this point.

I think a lot of what folks are hyping up about Peat has more to do with the system at Stanford than it does with traits inherent to Peat.  This is why I have him behind 5 other guys at the OT position on my board.

Highs

The guys in this section I think are going to be very good players at the next level, and for one or more reasons, are being currently devalued by the experts.  

TJ Yeldon, RB, Alabama

In my opinion Yeldon is getting lost in the crowd, being part of one of the deepest RB classes in a long time.  There are a lot of talented guys in this group, but Yeldon should be in the discussion.  When I look at tape of Yeldon, I see a patient runner with good burst, excellent vision, and a fluidity carrying the ball that make it look natural.  All of these are traits you want in an NFL RB.

I think what hurts Yeldon the most is the system he is coming from.  Teams are going to be wary of Alabama RBs, especially after the recent struggles of over hyped players like Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson.  But what people are forgetting is that Yeldon is a very different runner than these guys, and I think he has the potential to be very good at the next level.  On my board, he is rated above guys like Jay Ajayi (who I also like a lot), Tevin Coleman, David Cobb, and David Johnson.

Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami

Like the RB position, this year's wide receiver class is loaded.  With all of the talent to choose from, some guys are being overlooked, and I see Phillip Dorsett as one of them.  Sure, he doesn't have the size of a Dorial Beckham Green, nor the athleticism of Kevin White, but Phillip Dorsett is an excellent receiver who could be very productive at the next level.

Many experts show Dorsett as a second round pick in the draft.  I can see that only because of the sheer number of intriguing receivers who are available.  But in this pass happy league, you have to have guys who can reel in all of these passes, and if Doresett does actually fall into the second round, someone is going to get themselves a steal.  

Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA

In today's NFL, the 3-4 defense has become the choice du jour for defensive coordinators.  As a result, a lot of successful collegiate DEs either switching to OLB, or being left as players without a "true" position.  Odighizuwa (pronounced OH-diggy-zoo-wa), is one of these guys.  When I watch him play, I see a long, lean, fast pass rusher.  Sure he could benefit from adding some more muscle to his frame, but in the end, I see a lot of Jason Taylor in Odighizuwa's game.

If he lands in a 4-3 system which will allow him to use his length to his advantage he could be a very good contributor, very quickly.   The way the New York Giants have utilized Jason Pierre Paul, is similar to how a team will have to use Odighizuwa, but he has the upside to be every bit as productive as JPP.

Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan

When I watch the tape of Ryan controlling the middle of the field in Ann Arbor, I see a guy who has all of the intangibles that are needed to become successful linebackers in the NFL.  Although he is not fast, Ryan has excellent instincts, and takes good angles to the ball, cutting down the distance he has to cover, thus making him play faster than he measures.  Ryan consistently shows excellent play diagnosis skills, helping him get into good position to be around the ball.  He also shows excellent discipline, allowing him to stay in good position to make the play.

Ryan is undersized though, and he absence of prototypical size and ideal measurables, will result in him falling down draft boards.  Last year I spent a lot of pre-draft time talking about how I felt Chris Borland deserved second round consideration.  Ryan is not quite Borland, but he is good, so getting him the the third round would be a value add for someone.

Cedric Thompson, S, Minnesota

Thompson was one of the guys who was not invited to attend the combine in Indy last month.  Every year there are guys who miss the call to Indy, but get drafted and become successful pros nonetheless.   I fully anticipate Cedric Thompson being another guy who takes that path.  

At his pro day, Thompson put on a show, and this got a lot of folks attention, but the truth is, if you were watching any Minnesota Gophers football this year, you already knew about Thompson.  He is a very fluid athlete, and he is not afraid to get in on a tackle, nor fall into coverage.  

His lack of a national stage, and his absence at the combine will result in him falling to a later position in this draft, but he is the fourth highest rated Safety on my board, and I suspect whoever does send up the card with Thompson's name scrawled across it will be quite pleased they did.

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EZ Does It - Free Agency Update

Right about now football fans all around the country are either elated with their team's offseason progress, and are thinking they could be in the mix next season, or they are channeling their inner Rob Schneider and thinking, "Oh no.  We suck again".

Well friends, as we all know, the NFL is not like the NBA.  In this league, the offseason champion is often times not even around for the playoff push, let alone the Superbowl.  But it is March, and with March comes Spring, and with Spring hope is eternal, so lets take a look at how teams have faired so far this offseason.

We are going to break the league into three groups: On the Upswing, Holding Steady, and Going the Wrong Way.  Teams will be listed alphabetically in each group so don't read any rankings into this.  A lot of this grade will be dependent on how well teams have done with the first wave of free agency.  But lets remember, that the draft is yet to come, and there will be more signings over then next few weeks, and into the early summer which will make an impact too.  But for now....

On the Upswing

Arizona Cardinals: Looking only at volume, the Cards have lost almost as many players as they have gained, but I think the quality of their additions slightly outweighs their losses.  LaMarr Woodley and Sean Weatherspoon could be very welcome additions if they can find some of their old form, and I like Cory Redding to soften the loss of Dan Williams and Darnell Dockett.  But their gem addition is Mike Iupati, who was the highest rated interior lineman available, according to me (and a whole bunch of experts).  Paired with last year's addition of Jared Veldheer, the left side of this line is set for the next 5 years.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have had a quiet offseason, but despite their moves being 'under the radar', this team has improved.  Adding Justin Durant will offset the loss of Sean Weatherspoon, and the additions of Brooks Reed and O'Brien Schofield (who follows new HC Dan Quinn's from Seattle) will make this defense better.  They still need help with the pass rush, and no, I don't think Adrian Clayborn is that answer, but they are better now than they were a month ago.

Buffalo Bills: So far this offseason, only the Eagles have been more active at grabbing headlines than the Bills, and Buffalo has done an excellent job of closing the gap in the AFC East.  Shady McCoy is one of the best backs in the league, and Percy Harvin is an explosive player who will bring an additional element to this offense.  These two playmakers make this team better, easily offsetting the loss of CJ Spiller.  Their defense is a bit weaker without Alonzo and Searcy, but those two can be replaced via the draft or additional signings.  They still need a QB though.  Adding Cassel from Minnesota wont cut it.

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have had one of the best offseasons thus far.  They have been smart and not sacrificed any part of their long term plan in the name of short term gains.  5 significant veteran additions, and all 5 could play a role in this team reaching that next level.  I love the addition of Frank Gore, for multiple reasons, including the flexibility it provides GM Ryan Grigson during the draft.  Andre Johnson should be able to replace Reggie Wayne quite nicely, and the addition of Trent Cole adds another leader, and great character guy to the locker room, and field.  

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags are a team that was pretty bad last season, so they had a lot of holes to fill, and not a lot of players other teams were clamoring for.  Still, they have done an excellent job of capitalizing on their excellent cap situation, and have been hard at work.  The gem of this crop is obviously Julius Thomas from Denver, who will create match up problems for all of Jacksonville's opponents next year.  But do not overlook the value of the Jared Odrick signing.  Odrick has been an under appreciated piece of Miami;s defensive front, and in his new home, he should have the chance to turn it up a level.  

Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs had to get better at receiver this offseason, and give Alex Smith some legitimate weapons.  Enter Jeremy Maclin from Philly.  Maclin is already familiar with Andy Reid's system from their time together, and he can stretch a field, as he proved last year.  They still need some more help, but the draft is only 6 weeks away.  I didn't like to see KC part ways with Rodney Hudson, and adding Ben Grubbs is not a full offset of this loss, but overall KC is at a slight net positive to date.

Miami Dolphins: It is hard to add the best player available in free agency and not make it onto the "getting better" list.  The addition of Suh could very well have a major impact on the rest of the defense, and no doubt that Tom Brady is less comfortable now than he was only three weeks ago.  Still, the addition of Kenny Stills was offset by the loss of Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and Brandon Gibson, and the money spent on Suh will keep the Phins tight to the cap for the foreseeable future.  Jordan Cameron may be the difference maker here.  If he is healthy, that could have been the heist of the offseason.

New York Jets: This team had one of the worst secondaries in the league last year, and in the course of three days, they have completely overhauled it to become one of the better ones.  The new GM brought the old band back together.  Sure Revis and Cromartie are older than when they left, but they can still play.  Add in Buster Skrine and Marcus Gilchrist and you are on your way.  Brandon Marshall is always a risk with his behavior, but when he is locked in he is fierce, and paired with Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley, they have some weapons now.  As for QB, well...

Oakland Raiders:  Like the Jaguars, this team would have had to work very hard to have not improved.  Still, I like some of their moves thus far.  Rodney Hudson is a top 5 center in the league.  Did they overpay?  Yes.  Did they have to to get better.  Yes.  Dan Williams, Nate Allen, Malcolm Smith, and Roy Helu will each be called upon to contribute next season too. I even think Curtis Lofton has a little left in the tank, although I am weary of adding much more veteran talent like last offseason.

Seattle Seahawks: It was without a doubt one of the biggest surprises in league history when we all learned that Jimmy Graham had been dealt from the Saints.  And to add his immense talent to the most talent laden team in the league was crazy.   But the Seahawks have had some losses this offseason too.  Adding Cary Williams will not offset loosing Byron Maxwell, and the loss of Max Unger in the Graham deal will be more significant than some think.  But even with these hits, the addition of Graham to this offense will be tough for the rest of the league to overcome.

St Louis Rams: Getting rid of Sam Bradford's contract was a gain, and adding both Foles and draft pick compensation was another plus.  But the move that placed the Rams in this top group was the addition of Akeem Ayers.  Very few folks have been talking about this addition, but I think this was an excellent move for them, as he is a perfect fit in this defense, and they now can focus almost all of their draft on the offensive side of the ball.  The addition of Nick Fairly as a depth DT was a luxury add for the team.

Tennessee Titans: Another bad team, with almost no where to go but up.  The loss of Ayers could have been painful, but they did an excellent job at replacing him with Brian Orakpo.  Harry Douglas will be a nice addition to the receiving corp, and Da'Norris Searcy will help out in the secondary from his first day in that locker room.  Also, don't under estimate the value of the Derrick Morgan re-signing.  So far so good for the Titans.

Holding Steady

Carolina Panthers: Thus far this offseason, the Panthers haven't done too much.  They let go of DeAngelo Williams, but I am not sure that was a huge loss.  They added Ted Ginn and Michael Oher, but these would be considered minimal gains.  Overall, not much action.  David Gettleman seems to like to make his impact felt during the draft anyhow, so this may still turn out just fine for the Panthers.

Chicago Bears: The Bears have been active, but I think the losses have really offset the gains so far. I really like the addition of Parnell McPhee from Baltimore, but I think the loss of Marshall hurts this offense a lot.  Rolle is okay at this point in his career, but not really a major upgrade over Conte.  Melton and Paea being gone in the middle wont hurt too much, as they are both fairly replaceable.  All in all, stronger in some spots, weaker in others.

Cincinnati Bengals: I am happy that AJ Hawk was able to find his way back to his home state when he was released by the Packers, but his addition although nice, is not enough to put this team in the category of "improved".  And unfortunately for Cincy, that is pretty much all they have done so far this offseason.  If they do in fact bring Michael Johnson back now that he has been released from Tampa, the Bengals could find themselves moving on up.

Green Bay Packers: For every Ying, there is a Yang.  And for every Cincinnati there is a Green Bay.  Adding AJ Hawk alone was not enough to move the Bengals up, nor was loosing him enough to move the Packers down.  Hawk was a good player, but Green Bay will be able to find someone else to help in the middle.  They resigned both Bulaga and Cobb, and that keep everything in check for this team, so far.

Minnesota Vikings: When I found out that the Vikes acquired Mike Wallace from Miami I almost moved them to the upper category on this list.  Almost.  Wallace does give them another weapon, maybe.  It depends if they get the Mike Wallace from Pittsburgh or the Mike from Miami.  If he can stretch the field and give young Teddy Bridgewater the deep weapon they thought they had in Cordarelle Patterson, then this will be a win.  If he continues to fight with coaches, and take himself out of the game, this will be just an expensive mistake.

New York Giants: The G-men have been awfully quite thus far in the offseason.  They added Shane Vereen early in the week, and he is a nice addition, but alone, will not change much for the team.  They lost Antrell Rolle and Walter Thurmond, but neither guy will be missed much.  So in the end, the team is pretty much where they ended last year.  Not bad, but not improved yet either.

Philadelphia Eagles: An old boss once told me busy and productive are not always the same thing. This quote came back to me while watching the almost frantic moves by Chip Kelly this past month.  Foles, McCoy, Maclin, Williams, Allen, Cole, and Herremans are all gone.  Murray, Matthews, Maxwell, Alonzo, Bradford, and Thurman have all arrived.  But are the Eagles really better?  Are they worse?  At this point, I don't think either.  Murray and Matthews are good replacements for McCoy, but again, 1 football, and 3 legit RBs.  A healthy Bradford is a little better than Foles, but will he stay healthy?  Having no wide outs will hurt, but the secondary has improved.  The D-line is weaker, but the linebackers are stronger.  Right now it seems there has been a whole lot of busy, but I am not sure that there has been any production.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is a team that builds through the draft, so I am not surprised at this point to see them maintaining the status quo.  They have some needs, and they lost a little with the retirement of Jason Worlids, but they will likely make sound additions with the draft to start to fill some their holes on defense.  Adding a back-up RB in DeAngelo Williams was nice, but not groundbreaking in any way.

San Diego Chargers: The Bolts are a team on the cusp, and it could be argued that the additions of Orlando Franklin to the offensive front and Jacoby Jones to the receiving corp made this team better, but they lost Marcus Gilchrist from the secondary, and their best RB, albeit one who is hurt almost as frequently as he is not.  If the team makes some smart picks during the draft, this could still be a successful offseason.  If not, well they may continue to be "one year away".

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: As bad as the Bucs were, I am surprised they haven't done more yet this offseason.  They have been rumored to be in the mix for AP, but that has yet to materialize.  So as of now the team is trying to add through subtraction.  Johnson and Collins are both gone to rectify mistakes from a year ago, and Goldson looks to be headed out too.  The additions of Conte, Melton, and Bruce Carter leave me feeling somewhat underwhelmed.  There is still time left for the Bucs to do something, and they are on the clock, but as of now, not too much improvement, and it would be hard to get worse.

Washington Redskins: This team seems destined to remain "questing for mediocrity" as long as Daniel Snyder is writing the checks.  They added Terrance Knighton which will help their maligned defensive front, but then they loose both Helu and Orakpo, which ding them a bit.  This team consistently seems to take one step forward, just to take one step back.

Going the Wrong Way

Baltimore Ravens:  When you are good, your players become targets in the offseason.  This year, the Ravens again find themselves in this position.  So far they have made no major additions, but they have lost a bunch.  Losing McPhee, Jones, Torey Smith, and Owen Daniels will hurt this team, but trading away Haloti Ngata could be downright devastating.  If not for their resigning of Justin Forsett, the Ravens offseason could be the worst in the NFL thus far.

Cleveland Browns: Can anyone step in and help the Browns please.  This is getting downright comical.  Every time they start down the right path, something has to derail this franchise.  The added Josh McCown this offseason, but is he any better than Brian Hoyer who left town?  They added Brian Hartline who can be a good complimentary piece to the receiving corp, but lost a good pass rusher in Jabal Sheard.  Watching Jordan Cameron skip town though pushes the Browns from a mid pack rating to the bottom grouping.  At least this is something they and their fans are used to though.

Dallas Cowboys: At the end of last season, Dallas fans were left hopeful, and optimistic.  They had some holes on the D, but the offense was in good hands.  Now, the largest part of that offense from a year ago (statistically speaking) is playing for a division rival, and the addition of the oft injured Darren McFadden has done very little to ease that pain.  By the way, that defense with some opportunities, lost three of their best from a year ago in Carter, Durant, and Rolando McClain.  I guess we will see if Rod Marinelli really is a magician.

Denver Broncos: When you are a very good team, whose window of opportunity is almost closed, this is not the section of this list you want to be in, but that is exactly where the Broncos find themselves.  With this being Mr Manning's swan song, the team has one last shot at the crown, but loosing Julius Thomas and replacing him with Owen Daniels is not a wash.  Not even close.  Throw in the departures of Pot Roast Knighton, Rahim Moore, and Orlando Franklin, and you see why things are not pointing up for new HC Gary Kubiak in his return to the mile high city.

Detroit Lions:  It is very difficult to not be worse off after loosing the most feared defensive tackle in football, entering his prime, on a hall-of-fame career arc.  Unfortunately for Detroit, that is exactly what happened when Suh signed in South Florida.  Then they also lost their other starting DT as well as Fairly jumped ship.  The addition of Haloti Ngata was phenomenal, but it is not enough to fully offset the losses.  

Houston Texans: When you force the best player in your franchise's history out the door, you need to have a plan in place, and at the moment, I just don't see why the Texans were in such a hurry to send Andre Johnson packing.  Right now they have themselves a new gaping hole at wide out, and they still have all of their other holes to fill.  Rahim Moore is a step in that direction, but it is not enough thus far.

New England Patriots: Patriots fans nation wide have gotten in the habit of laughing at all football writer during this time of year.  Every year it seems that the whole world predicts the demise of the Pats, and writes them up as big losers during the offseason, but every year they win the division and are in the chase for the Lombardi.  This year they see key part Shane Vereen, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Browner leave for "greener pastures", while all they added back was Brandon Gibson, Jabal Sheard, and Scott Chandler.  So yet again, they are at the bottom of the offseason standings.  But will it matter next December?

New Orleans Saints: I guess if the question is has the window of opportunity closed on the Saints, we now know the answer is yes.  Clearly, the team has entered into rebuilding mode.  They have sent Stills, Graham, and Grubbs out of town so far, and veterans Pierre Thomas and Curtis Lofton have also departed.  Max Unger is a nice piece to have added, but he is not a player who you build around, so I am still left wondering if Mickey Loomis really intends to use Mark Ingram as his centerpiece for this rebuild he has embarked upon?  Because right now, Ingram, and aging Brees, and the very young  Brandin Cooks is all he has left.

San Francisco 49ers:  This has been a tumultuous offseason so far for the 49ers.  They have seen their best defensive player, Patrick Willis, retire, and they could watch DE Justin Smith follow him out.  Mike Iupati, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Perrish Cox, and Dan Skuta also all have new addresses too, so this a definitely a depleted team. Torrey Smith is a nice receiver, but he is suited for a "2" role, and Anquan Boldin already has that spot filled.  Darnell Docket also climbs aboard, but right now the needle is pointing the wrong way for Jim Tomsula and Trent Balke. 

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Musings - 2015 Early Free Agency Thoughts

The NFL's "legal tampering period" has begun, so although no deals, including trades, can become official until Tuesday (the start of the new NFL League Year), I wanted to share some thoughts on some of the early breaking news of stars in new homes.  As with any other move, it's easy to give opinions on looking at the move in a bubble, but we all know that each move has an impact on other moves still to come (or moves that won't happen now).  Also, as with any prognostication, the full impact of the move could be years away from being realized.  Still, talking about all of these changes is too much fun to miss out on, so here is the next in our 'Musings' series.

LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for Kiko Alonzo

Chip Kelly's quest to remake the Eagles in the Oregon Ducks image continued this offseason, as the team dealt arguably their best player to Buffalo in exchange for a former Duck who is coming off missing an entire year due to an recurring injury.

I'm not trying to downplay Philly's excess at RB, nor their need at LB.  I'm also not going to say Alonzo is not a talent, because his rookie year in Buffalo proved he is.  But still, I am left wondering if this was really the best haul the Eagles could have gotten for their star back.

In Buffalo, I think McCoy will excel.  Rex Ryan took the Jets to the AFC championship game in his first two years in New York, on the back of some excellent defense and a stout running game.  The Bills already have a good defense in position, and now have the running back he can lean on.  I'm not predicting an AFC Title Game appearance for the Bills this year, but, I am buying on McCoy being a big producer in Buffalo.

If Kiko Alonzo can stay healthy, and this is a big if, the Eagles will have filled an area of need with a very good ball player who knows the system and culture his coach wants.  This cannot be overlooked.  However, I am not sold that putting the band back together will lead Chip Kelly to the promised land in the NFL.  Remember, how many National Titles did the Ducks win under Kelly's watch?  Will they be fun to watch.  Probably.  But the Eagles fan base is a serious group, and they want titles, not touchdowns.  Although his team will be athletic and pose problems for the opposition, I'm not sure this move gets them closer to a Superbowl, and isn't that the goal?

Ndamukong Suh to Miami

Even though it is not official yet, it seems that the race for the big prize of the NFL Free Agency period is already over.  Today, Chris Mortensen reported that the Miami Dolphins have agreed to make Suh the highest paid defensive player in NFL history.  Since the report was confirmed by Adam Schefter and Ian Rappaport, this makes 3 of the 4 on my Mount Rushmore of NFL insiders (John Clayton is the fourth), I have faith this is true.  Within minutes of the story breaking, I started fielding questions about my thoughts on this move, so here they are.

Pros: Suh is a force on the defensive front.  He is a run stuffer extraordinaire, and his presence will free up the LBs to make plays and the DEs to get pressure.  This will help the whole defense immediately.  He is a mean man in the trenches, and this will make all of the QBs he faces uneasy.  I am sure Brady wont be sleeping well tonight.

Cons: Suh's name carries more weight than his overall game right now.  I wouldn't call him one dimensional, but, his game against the run far exceeds his performance against the pass.  Calling him the best free agent since Reggie White is absurd.  Further, he is not a better defender than JJ Watt, so paying him like that is a bad move.  Finally, this contract can quickly become an albatross for the Phins.  Signing Suh at this figure will prevent Miami for making other moves which would help the team improve.  I think they would have been better off signing Mike Iupati, Brooks Reed, and reupping with Jared Odrick for less money combined, than adding Suh.

Bottom line here is that Miami has gotten better.  They landed the big fish (bad pun intended) of this class, but unfortunately, since they were not 1 player away from the Lonbardi Trophy, I think they came up short.  Expensive, but short.


Byron Maxwell and Frank Gore to Philly
No doubt it would have been nice for Bay Area fans to have watched Frank Gore finish his career in San Francisco, but it does not look like this will be the case.  He is reportedly going to join Darren Sproles in the Philly backfield next year.  In addition, the Eagles will address their need at corner by adding the best corner on the market with Byron Maxwell.

Overall, I like both of these moves.  The Eagles have to get better against the pass, and Maxwell has been learning under the game's best defenses since coming into the league.  I think he is ready for a bigger role, and in Philly he will get it.  His grit will play well with the fans and the media and help bring a blue collar attitude back to this defense.

Frank Gore is not the player he was even three years ago, but as long as the Eagles understand that he is not LeSean McCoy, and instead use him as a change of pace to Darren Sproles, I think this will also be a good signing.  Gore is an excellent locker room guy, and although he has a lot of miles on his wheels, I still think he can contribute in a more limited role.


Ingram, Cobb, Flowers, and Jackson all Resign
Sometimes the best moves a team makes in free agency are the moves to keep their players from skipping town.  With the four names above, I think that will apply.

Mark Ingram has been a disappointment for much of his time in New Orleans, but last year he started to flash.  Clearly Micky Loomis and company feel this was the start of something more, because they chose to prevent him from leaving town.  If Ingram continues to build on his performance from a year ago, this will be a win for both sides.

Randall Cobb is in the perfect system for his talents.  In fact right now it can be argued he is the best number two receiver in the game today.  Staying in Green Bay will allow for that team to continue to click offensively.  Granted, I think the Pack paying 10M/year for a number two is steep, but I think it would have been more costly for the team to have watched him walk out the door.

Two years ago, Brandon Flowers was a free agency bust in Kansas City.  Last year, he joined the Chargers, and along with rookie Jason Verrett, formed one of the better CB duos in the league.  For the Chargers to continue their assent towards the top of the AFC, they had to keep Flowers, and they did.  I really like this pair of corners, and it will allow the Bolts to focus on other areas of need.

For the first year or three of his career, I called Kareem Jackson a bust.  I thought the Texans completely missed by drafting this kid.  Fast forward to today, and I applaud the organization for bringing him back.  Each year as a pro, Jackson has gotten better.  He will not be confused for Darrell Revis or Richard Sherman any time soon, but he is now a better than average starter in the league.  Had he left, he would have been overpaid by someone to be their savior at corner, and I think that could have ended badly for both sides.  Staying however, will allow him to continue to improve in a system he knows, where the expectations are clear, known, and reasonable.  The Texans are a team on the rise, so keeping him in Houston I think was smart for them too.


As the frenzy that will be the next 7 days continues to unfold, I will continue to post some additional musings.  Until then, enjoy this week.  Right now, everyone is in first place, and your team will make some moves which could place them on a "path to a championship."



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EZ Does It - 2015 Mock Draft (Pre-Free Agency)

So it is that time of year again, where everyone and their brother become prognosticators and begin to mock out what they think will happen during the upcoming NFL Draft.  As many of you know, our host EZ used to be one of those guys, before we dragged him into the fantasy football world.  But old habits die hard, and he is at it again, mocking away will all the other experts.  

Below what you will find is EZ's 2-round post-combine, pre-free agency mock draft.  However, for those of you reading, understand this:

This is not a list of what EZ thinks will happen on draft day.  It is what he thinks should happen on draft day given the players available and team needs.

Much of this will change based on the free agency period.  Acquisitions and additional departures will impact this list.

Pro-Days have not yet begun, and with that will come further analysis on the players, which can also impact the draft board.

This does not anticipate trades.  EZ will comment if he thinks a team should try and trade, but this mock assumes everyone stays put.

So without further delay...

1.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, FSU

In this draft, which lacks real elite talent at the top, the Bucs are in the catbird seat.  They need a franchise QB, and Winston is the only prospect in this class with the full NFL QB tool set.  He shows very high football IQ, which also bodes well for him.  The only question with Winston is are his off the field issues a result of immaturity, and thus something which can be behind him, or is this indicative of a deeper problem which will derail his career?

2.       Tennessee Titans – Leonard Williams, DL, USC

The Titans seem to have committed to Mettenberger as their QB of the future.  As a result, there is no need to reach for the other 1st round QB in this spot.  Instead, they can grab the player who is top on my overall board.  Leonard Williams has the size and ability to play all along the defensive front and will fit in multiple defensive schemes.  In Tennessee, he can play the DE in their 3-4, and he should be the anchor of that defense for a very long time.

3.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler Jr, OLB, Florida

Last year in this same spot, the Jags tabbed their future signal caller in Blake Bortles.  Now they need someone who can be their future on the defensive side of the ball.  Fowler is a fantastic athlete, and shows excellent instinct in getting at the ball.   For Gus Bradley, he needs to find a guy to fill the Bruce Irvin role in his defense, and he should select Fowler to be that guy.

4.       Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

Oakland is another team who thinks their current QB is their future.  Carr had a nice rookie season, but if he is going to develop into a true threat, he needs some weapons. Starting before the combine, there has been momentum moving towards West Virginia's Kevin White as the top WR of this class.  That is just silly.  He does have excellent measureables, however, there has not been a more dominant wide out in the college game over the last two season that Amari Cooper.  Remember, tape before measures, and the tape here shows Cooper as a potential top 5 NFL receiver in the next 2-4 years. 

5.       Washington Redskins – Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska

The Skins are in need of a complete makeover on defense.  Randy Gregory would be a start in that direction.  At Nebraska, Gregory flashed the high upside that makes NFL scouts drool.  He definitely needs to add some weight to his lean frame though for him to be an effective long term option.  Some extra time in the weight room should help with that.  Sure he needs some time to develop, but Washington is not on the verge of contending this year, so he should have the time he needs.

6.       New York Jets – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Before I go into detail, let me start with this.  I really believe that Philly is going to try and make a move up to #3 to ensure the acquisition of HC Chip Kelly's college signal caller.  But since this mock does not consider trades, the Jets are in luck.  Geno Smith is not the answer under center, and with a new coaching staff and new front office, I think they are going to want to bring in their new QB.  Mariota has not demonstrated in college the pocket presence needed to be a great NFL QB.  What he has shown however, is that he mastered the offense he was given.  If he can do the same thing in the NFL, the Jets will have their future.

7.       Chicago Bears – Danny Shelton, NT, Washington

It sure is a sad state of affairs when the defense of both the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers are in shambles, but that is the reality in 2015's NFL. The Bears can begin to rebuild their unit by adding the very large nose tackle from Washington.  Shelton may become a good player, but I do question his ceiling. Unfortunately, there are a lot of guys in this class who have a mid/late round 1 grade, and thus some will be "overdrafted" because of how short this class is on elite talent.  Id much rather take Shelton 8-12 picks later in the round, but things being how they are, the Bears have to make this pick.

8.       Atlanta Falcons – Shane Ray, DE, Missouri

New HC Dan Quinn built his reputation on defense, and defense is where the Falcons need the most help.  They absolutely have to do a better job in 2015 at getting after the opposing QB.  Shane Ray is touted as the best pure pass rusher in this draft class, and that is why the Birds will pick him here.  Unfortunately, I have some concerns.  Ray is the "top ten talent" I see as most likely to bust.  In college, Ray showed he can get after the QB, but he only did so with speed.  To be successful in the NFL, you need to be more that a one trick pony, and I don't see any other weapons in Ray's arsenal.

9.       New York Giants – Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa

Last year the G-Men struck gold by adding Odell Beckham Jr in the first round.  As valuable a tool as he is, this team is still lacking real talent up front, and that situation has only gotten worse over the past 12 months.  With holes on both lines, I expect the Giants to add a lot of big boys this draft.  Many in the league view Scherff as a guard at the next level. I'm not sold on that.  I think he could play either guard or tackle in the NFL, and he is the top OL option on my board at either position.

10.   St Louis Rams – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

The Rams have done a fantastic job of build a top notch defense since Jeff Fisher arrived, but they still have too many holes on the offense.  They need a QB who can stay healthy, and if Marriota was still around they would spring.  With him gone though, they have to turn to other positions of need.  White is a very talent youngster who will add a dimension to the Rams passing attack that is simply missing today.

11.   Minnesota Vikings – Devante Parker, WR, Louisville

The Vikes have a lot on their plate right now in dealing with the Adrian Peterson situation.  Still they made strides last year with two great additions in the first round between Anthony Barr and Teddy Bridgewater. Now having the need at wide out, they will certainly take advantage of the opportunity to pair their young QB with his former primary target in Devante Parker.  Instant chemistry is very valuable, and this pairing is just perfect.

12.   Cleveland Browns – Landon Collins, S, Alabama

The Browns are quite the little mess, yet again.  Last year they showed some promise, but then the wheels fell off.  Both of their first round selections from a year ago were big disappointments, and Josh Gordon surprised no one by getting in trouble again.  They have a lot of needs they could address with this pick, but adding a play maker like Landon Collins would be great for them.  He is a high character guy with proven leadership qualities in a system that prepares guys to be great pros.  

13.   New Orleans Saints – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

If the board falls like this, and Waynes is still on the board here at 13, it will prove that god has a soft spot for the Saints.  Trae Waynes is not only the top corner in this class, but is second to only Leonard Williams, as at the top of the overall defensive players list in this class.  Waynes is easily the most complete corner in this class, and the Saints need someone who can come in to anchor their secondary for the next decade.

14.   Miami Dolphins – Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson

The Phins are an enigma to me right now.  They are an average team, which in some ways seems close to becoming a playoff team, but somehow still have a bunch of holes to fill.  With their recent wide receiver purge, I think Miami would select White or Parker if one of them fell to them here, but in this scenario, they instead opt to add a pass rusher, which they also sorely need.  Beasley wowed at the combine with his athletic prowess, but his tape backs up the story that he can be a successful linebacker in the NFL.  

15.   San Francisco 49ers – Jalen Collins, CB, LSU

The Niners took a step backwards last year, and now they have new sideline leadership that will operate the way the front office wants.  The teams has some question marks in some spots though, and I suspect that filling the holes in the secondary will be amongst their top priorities.   Jalen Collins is fast, and he is talented too.  How well he fits into the schemes of this new staff will be the big question.  I have some concerns about the future of the Niners under Balke, but that is not an indictment of Collins.

16.   Houston Texans – La'el Collins, OT, LSU

The Texans are another team on the verge of being pretty good, but still have quite a few holes to fill.  In this scenario, I would expect them to select Louisiana State's other Collins, La'el, to fill a hole on their o-line.  Some have Florida's DJ Humphries as the higher rated prospect, but I think Collins will ultimately be the better pro.

17.   San Diego Chargers – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Melvin Gordon is one of my favorite players in this year's draft class.  He has the size, the speed, and the quickness that will make him a home run threat every time he touches the ball. The Bolts are a good team, and with some consistency from their run game, could be excellent.  I do not expect the team to re-up with oft injured RB Ryan Matthews, and that opens the door for Gordon who add something to the offense immediately from day 1.

18.   Kansas City Chiefs – Dorial Green Beckham, WR, Missouri

There are many evaluators out there who have some real concerns about Green Beckham.  His antics led to him being out for the entirety of 2014, and if his troubles follow him to the NFL that could mean another Josh Gordon situation.  But like Gordon, Green Beckham is very talented.  In fact, had he played last year, I think it would be him pushing Cooper for the top spot in this group of wide receivers, not White.  For the Chiefs, who went the entire season without having a WR grab a TD, they really needs someone of this caliber to step in to the offense.  But there is definitely risk here.

19.   Cleveland Browns via Buffalo – Jalen Strong, WR, Arizona State

Thanks to Buffalo's move last year to trade up for Sammy Watkins, the Browns have their second 1st round pick here.  After taking Collins earlier, I think Cleveland has to add another receiving weapon, especially considering the issues facing Josh Gordon.  Jalen Strong is a quality receiver, whose multifaceted play will be a nice addition to the offense.  Now if they only had a QB...

20.   Philadelphia Eagles – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

As I mentioned earlier, I fully expect to see Philly engineer a deal which allows them to move up the board to land Marcus Marriota.  But since this draft doesn't allow for that, I would suspect that sitting in this position, Philly instead looks to address its secondary.  Philly could stand to improve at both corner and safety, and Marcus Peters is the best player available at either position.  Like some other guys from this class, Peters has some baggage though.  He has all of the physical skills, but his behavior off the field got him kicked off the Huskies squad a year ago.  His talent level is too high to ignore though, so if Chip Kelly feels he can keep Peters in line this would be a risk worth taking.

21.   Cincinnati Bengals – Eli Harold, LB, Virginia

It was not that long ago that the Bengals had one of the most feared defenses in football.  Fast forward to now, and you see injuries and inconsistent play have taken their toll.  The Bengals must find a way to generate pressure next year, and Eli Harold has the skills to help them with that.  They are thin at linebacker, and Harold was good on tape, and saw his stock rise with an excellent performance at the combine.

22.   Pittsburgh Steelers – PJ Williams, CB, FSU

Another of the proud defenses in the NFL, the Steelers have fallen on tough times.  This defense got old quickly two years ago, and now they have to scramble to reload.  The past two years have seen them add Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Stephon Tuitt, but now they have to address the ancient secondary.  Both Polomalu and Taylor are done, and PJ Williams from Florida State will be some of the young blood this team needs to inject on the now LeBeau-less defense.

23.   Detroit Lions – Malcolm Brown, DT, Texas

Malcolm Brown is one of the more talented defensive players in this year's draft class.  The fact that he is still available at this point in our mock, is more a reflection on the needs of the teams picking before this than on Brown himself.  He absolutely has the talent to be a borderline top ten player.  The Lions are the beneficiaries of this stroke of luck though. Detroit is going to loose Nick Fairley this offseason, and also could see themselves Suh-less too.  Brown is not Suh, but he is still very good and would be a welcome addition.

24.   Arizona Cardinals – Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami

The Cards were an awesome story a year ago, and Bruce Arians has this team moving in the right direction.  They were decimated by injuries throughout the year, and it showed that although their front line is talented, they are not yet deep enough to stay competitive in the face of injury.  This team could go in a lot of directions with this pick, and I fully expect to see them draft a QB at some point in this draft, but not here.  Instead, I think they add the top ILB in this class in Perryman.  Simply put, Perryman has a nose for the ball, and his instinctual play combined with good enough measurables, lands him on an already good defense, getting better.

25.   Carolina Panthers – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

The good thing about playing in a weak division is that you can make the post season following a very poor season.  The bad thing is you pick later in the draft, making it harder to acquire the pieces you need to improve.  Carolina made the post season last year by default, and now has to find a way to fill some holes picking late in the round.  With holes at both wide out and corner, the Cats need to fill both.  Since the wide out crop is deeper, I suggest they go corner here, and add Kevin Johnson, who was the best player on a very bad team last year at Wake.  

26.   Baltimore Ravens – Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan

Baltimore is a very good team, and they will be in the mix again next season.  Last season top pick, CJ Mosley, is a budding star in the league, so they will be looking for gold again here.  If anyone can do it, it is Ozzie.  Torrey Smith is a free agent, unlikely to return, and although Steve Smith Sr had some bright spots for Baltimore last year, he is getting to the downside of his career.  There are better overall receivers still on the board than Funchess, but none with the size/speed combination he provides.  With some mentoring, and patients, Flacco will have another big time weapon for this offense if Funchess develops as expected.

27.   Dallas Cowboys – Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon

No team overachieved more last season that the Dallas Cowboys.  Going into week 1, the pundits were talking about Dallas being a bad defense.  Historically bad.  By the end of the year, most in the NFL were submitting Rod Marinelli's name for sainthood based on the miracle he performed.  Great coaching notwithstanding, this teams still needs an influx of talent on the defense, and it can start with Armstead.  He is big, and very athletic, and would be an excellent fit as the 3 technique in Marinelli's Tampa 2 style defense.

28.   Denver Broncos – Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State

Despite their success, the Broncos are going through a rebuild of sorts right now.  It started with the coaching staff, and I suspect we will see some shedding of veteran contracts too prior to the star of free agency.  The Broncos defense is good, but they have to play better, consistently.  Ward and Ware were great additions last year, but this team has to get younger.  McKinney is a stout run defender, and he is a presence in the middle of a defense.  I think he would be a good fit for Wade Phillips' system.

29.   Indianapolis Colts – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

If not for a devastating knee injury this year, Gurley would be even higher on my big board, but his injury turns into the good fortune of the Colts.  Indy is a team on the cusp.  They have the best young QB in the league, and some great weapons around him.  They need to get better on the front, but nothing is a bigger need than adding a ground game.  Trent Richardson has been a total bust, and Although Bradshaw had some nice moments last year, he failed to stay healthy for a full season again.  Gurley is a home run hitter, and could quickly develop into one of the best backs in the league.  This is a match made in heaven.

30.   Green Bay Packers – DJ Humphries, OT, Florida

At this point in the draft, adding a guy like Humphries starts to feel like a steal.  He easily could have gone 10-15 picks earlier, but it is just not how the board fell.  Ted Thompson won't complain one bit about that.  This team was very good last year, and was awfully close to playing on Superbowl Sunday.  To take that next step, the team has to address the fronts on both sides of the ball.  Humphries is the best talent still on the board, and he also happens to address one of these need areas.  Double win!

31.   Seattle Seahawks  - Eddie Goldman, DT, FSU

Very good yet again, Seattle follows the draft strategy of best available player.  This should not be interpreted to mean they have no needs, because the absolutely do, but the Hawks will draft for talent over need every time. This is the case here.  Eddie Goldman is a great talent, and that is why he comes off the board here rather than an o-lineman, like TJ Clemmings, where the team has some need.  Goldman immediately joins the rotation up front for this defense who, although not quite as dominant as 2013, was still one of the best units in the game in 2014, and likely will be again in 2015.

32.   New England Patriots – Jordan Phillips, NT, Oklahoma

The Pats are back on top again, and again have the target resting squarely on their backs.  It has been too many years now that the experts start predicting the end of the Patriots only to find that the team has found a way to make it happen with "plug-and-play" parts.  Vince Wilfork has been a beast for this team for the last decade, but despite being a personal favorite of owner Robert Craft, his salary now exceeds his contribution level.  I suspect he will either get restructured, or released.  Either way, it is time to find his replacement.  Phillips is the big bodied man from Oklahoma, and he has the skills to be a fit.  Give him some time to develop, especially under the tutelage of the NE coaches, and he could be the next great NE DT.

33.   Tennessee Titans – TJ Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

34.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami

35.   Oakland Raiders – Byron Jones, CB, UConn

36.   Jacksonville Jaguars – Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska

37.   New York Jets – Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson

38.   Washington Redskins – Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA

39.   Chicago Bears – Bud Dupree, LB, Kentucky

40.   New York Giants – Carl Davis, DT, Iowa

41.   St Louis Rams – Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA

42.   Atlanta Falcons – Ronald Darby, CB, FSU

43.   Cleveland Browns – Paul Dawson, LB, TCU

44.   New Orleans Saints – Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington

45.   Minnesota Vikings – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

46.   San Francisco 49ers – Mario Edwards, DE, FSU

47.   Miami Dolphins – Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami

48.   San Diego Chargers – Cameron Erving, C, FSU

49.   Kansas City Chiefs – Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M

50.   Buffalo Bills - Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota

51.   Houston Texans – Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan

52.   Philadelphia Eagles – Tre Jackson, G, FSU

53.   Cincinnati Bengals – Derron Smith, S, Fresno State

54.   Detroit Lions – Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke

55.   Arizona Cardinals – Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor

56.   Pittsburgh Steelers – AJ Cann, G, South Carolina

57.   Carolina Panthers – Brashad Perriman, WR, UCF

58.   Baltimore Ravens – Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State

59.   Denver Broncos – Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

60.   Dallas Cowboys – Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA

61.   Indianapolis Colts – Alex Carter, CB, Stanford

62.   Green Bay Packers – Ellis McCarthy, NT, UCLA

63.   Seattle Seahawks – Josue Matais, G, FSU

64.   New England Patriots – Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana

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