Musings - Head Coach Changes Part 2

In our last musings, we posted our thoughts on the first wave of head coaching changes including the hirings of Bill O'Brien, Jay Gruden, Lovie Smith, and Ken Whisenhunt.  Today's musing will focus on the final three head coaching changes this offseason.

Detroit Lions
Out: Jim Schwartz
In: Jim Caldwell

When Ken Whisenhunt accepted the job to take over the Tennessee Titans, the Lions reportedly lost their top candidate.  Despite this, the team almost immediately after, named Jim Caldwell their new head coach.  Most experienced fantasy football players were very familiar with the wide open style that Jim Schwartz ran while in Detroit, making names like Stafford, Megatron, and Reggie Bush sought after commodities in the world of fantasy football.  Now owners of these players, as well as potential owners are all left wondering how will Jim Caldwell impact this.

Jim Caldwell has a well established reputation in the NFL as a "quarterback whisperer".  He really seems to get the most out of his quarterbacks, mainly by refining their mechanics, and putting them in position to succeed.  Caldwell comes from the Tony Dungy coaching tree, and in his first NFL head coaching gig, he replaced Dungy as the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts.  Caldwell had the benefit of having one of the best ever at the position, Peyton Manning, as his quarterback there, and the results were just great.  Manning continued to play at a high level under Caldwell, and also spoke highly of Caldwell's tutelage. When Manning got hurt, and the wheels fell of the bus in Indy, Caldwell was fired, and he resurfaced on John Harbaugh's staff in Baltimore.  2 years ago, he replaced Cam Cameron as the OC and play caller in Baltimore, and immediately after the switch, Raven's QB Joe Flacco began a tear that resulted in excellent production, a playoff bid, a Super Bowl win, and a very big contract extension.

In Detroit, Caldwell has another immense talent to work with.  Matt Stafford has all of the tools necessary to be a very successful player (both real world and fantasy).  However, he has some mechanical issues which have prevented him from taking that step from Tier 2 QB to an elite Tier 1 player.  I believe the issue with Stafford begins with his footwork, and a coach like Caldwell is uniquely situated to help him fix these problems.  If Caldwell can get Stafford to put in the work, he will help him fix the mechanical issues.  This would result in more consistent performances, and better overall production.  Based on this, I am projecting Stafford, and subsequently Calvin Johnson, to start off slower than what we have seen in the past, but by the end of the year both players should be putting up their traditional numbers, maybe even better. Unfortunately, the projection for Reggie Bush is not as rosy.  In Caldwell offenses, the RBs that have been successful are more traditional backs (Ray Rice).  Bush is more of a scat back, who receives well out of the backfield.  As a result, I expect his fantasy production to drop off a little.  Joique Bell however could see a boost in performance as he is more suited for a traditional RB workload.


Minnesota Vikings
Out: Leslie Frasier
In: Mike Zimmer

From the moment Les Frazier was fired in Minnesota fantasy football players everywhere were waiting with baited breath to figure out what could happen with perennial fantasy superstar Adrian Peterson.  There was a lot of chatter about Minnesota's ownership looking for a coach who could continue to feature their franchise back.

The team chose Mike Zimmer to lead the way.  Zimmer is a well known, highly respected defensive mind, with a very strong personality.  His history of saying what is on his mind has prevented him in the past from getting the top job, but Minnesota was willing to take him lock-stock-and-barrel.  So what will this mean for the Vikes and their players.  Since Zimmer is a defensive minded coach, we can expect to see an uptick from the Vikings defense and their individual defensive players.  Zimmer has always been able to get excellent production from his defense, and there is no reason for anyone to assume that his time in Minnesota will be any different.  As far as team defenses go, Minnesota will be a good under the radar team to keep your eyes on.

As for the offense, to see production, Zimmer was going to have to hire a strong offensive coordinator.  He hit the fantasy jackpot with his hire of NFL veteran Norv Turner.  Turner is one of the best running back mentors in the game.  He has coached the likes of Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson to the pinnacle of success.  Now he gets his hands on the most talented running back in the game today.  Peterson is in line to put up very special numbers with Turner as his OC.  As for the receivers and tight ends though, there a more tempered optimism.  Cordarrelle Patterson has some real upside, but it may take a while before he hits his fantasy stride.  Greg Jennings is an established talent, but he too cant be counted on as a star.  All of this is because of the significant question marks at the quarterback position.  Zimmer will have his work cut out for him to turn this team back into a playoff squad.


Cleveland Browns
Out: Rob Chudzinski
In: Mike Pettine

As I have mentioned in previous posts, I have a lot of respect for Mike Lombardi, the GM of the Cleveland Browns.  I believe he has an excellent eye for talent, and I feel if given some time he will help turn the Browns around.  Having said all of that, I really do feel like he made a total mess of the head coaching situation in Cleveland.  He fired Rob Chudzinski after only one season, and then had a multitude of head coaching candidates exclude themself from consideration.  Finally, the team offered the job to a coach who was willing to take the gig, Mike Pettine.

Pettine comes to Cleveland from Buffalo where he served as the defensive coordinator.  He did a good job with the Bills defense, but he is the least accomplished of the three defensive guys who earned head coaching jobs this offseason.  Pettine manages an aggressive defense, and with the talent on that side of the ball for the Browns, we can see some production from the Cleveland Team Defense.  As for the offense, Pettine is another coach who needed a strong OC hire to make his offense relevant from a fantasy football perspective.

So who did Pettine pick to run his offense, Kyle Shannahan.  Shannahan was his dad's OC for the last few seasons in Washington, and when the father was let go, so was the son.  The truth is, Kyle Shannahan's resume is a bit checkered. It did pretty well when he was with the Texans, but I think he really struggled in Washington.  Considering the talent he is inheriting in Cleveland is no where near what he had in his previous two stops, I have real concerns about what we can expect from the skill positions for the Browns.  Josh Gordon is exceptional.  He really makes things happen regardless of who he has throwing him the ball.  With his exceptional production this past year,  Gordon will be a hot name during draft time.  Jordan Cameron is the TE, and he too put up surprisingly good numbers this past year.  Unfortunately for him, with Shannahan calling the plays, and the worst QB situation in the NFL, I don't believe he will duplicate his 2013 statistics.  The Browns also need to find an answer at the RB position.  They do have a lot of picks in this May's NFL Draft to help bolster the roster though.