Musings - Head Coach Changes

Often, the Ginny and I are asked our thoughts on certain NFL Fantasy Football related topics.  Usually we have the show as an avenue to share our thoughts.  With this being the offseason though, the show is on a less frequent schedule.  Still, lots of things are still happening in the NFL world, and these things have to potential to strongly impact what the reality will be during the 2014 season.  

These Musings posts will be an opportunity for Ginny and I to share our thoughts on some of these happenings, and discuss how these changes can impact you during your next fantasy draft.  Today, I want to focus on the Head Coaching changes that have already occurred.

Houston Texans                                                   
Out: Gary Kubiak
In: Bill O'Brien

Gary Kubiak is a good NFL coach, and has a system which is fairly fantasy friendly.  Arian Foster reached elite status under Kubiak, and Andre Johnson was an upper Tier 2 WR.  Ben Tate was a viable fantasy RB in his backup role, Matt Schaub was a good, albeit not great fantasy QB, and the defense was one of the league's top fantasy units. All of this was really only one year ago.  But this past season, the wheels fell completely off the bus.

Now the Texans tap former Penn State HC Bill O'Brien to lead the way.  From a fantasy perspective, we can not really be sure what we will get with O'Brien.  Often college systems, don't translate the same way in the pros.  O'Brien does come from the Belichick coaching tree however, so we can assume there has been some significant influence there.  If that is the case, the results could be mixed.  Much of the Patriots success from a fantasy perspective (and arguably from a NFL perspective too) come from how great a fit QB, Tom Brady is for that system.  If O'Brien is going to have similar success, he has to find his future signal caller.  The current QBs (Schaub, Keenum, Yates) don't seem to be that guy.  They do however have the first overall pick in May's NFL Draft.  Right now, you have to imagine that it will be either Teddy Bridgewater or Blake Bortles under center next season for Houston.  Unfortunately, I'm not sold on either as a potential elite NFL QB.  To be fair however, I'm not sold on any QB from this coming class as potentially elite.  What this means is some growing pains for the Texans.  Defenses will stack the box, and this will further limit the upside for the previously elite Houston run game.  Andre Johnson should still be a viable fantasy starter, but I would not predict star numbers from him either.  The defense though has some really good pieces in place, and with Romeo Crennel taking over as the DC, I think they could begin to return to form in 2014.  Elite again?  Probably not yet.  Middle of the pack to above average?  Absolutely.


Washington Redskins
Out: Mike Shannahan
In: Jay Gruden

Mike Shannahan is a legendary NFL Head Coach, one of the best of this generation.  He won two Super Bowls with Denver, and although he got great production from a fantasy perspective from his QB (read: John Elway), his biggest impact was from his running game where he turned player after player into fantasy gold (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Peyton Hillis).  When he arrived in Washington, we saw more of the same from the RB position (Alfred Morris), but it was his inability to get the most from franchise QB RG3 that ultimately sunk his ship.

Now the helm is under the control of Jay Gruden, a first time NFL Head Coach.  From his days in the arena league, Gruden was know to be able to generate offense, and after serving the the OC for the past few seasons in Cincinnati, we can see why.  So what could this mean for Washington next year? First, youhave to imagine that Gruden will work to take advantage of the incredible talent that is RG3.  I was expecting a better year for Griffin anyhow, but I think with Gruden his upside is even higher.  I also think Gruden will get solid numbers from the receiving corp.  With the Bengals, we saw elite production from AJ Green, but we also saw guys like Marvin Jones (2013) and Mohammed Sanu (2012) put up nice numbers too.  The player most likely to serve as the one in Washington is Garcon, and although he has already been very productive, it is fair to look for another bump up from him.  The question will be if Leonard Hankerson can take another step forward in 2014.  Gruden's offense will sure present him with that opportunity.

The only potential negatives I see is in the run game and at TE.  Alfred Morris was the focal point of Shannahan's offense, and under Gruden this will not be the case.  Morris should not plummet into fantasy obscurity, but he will no longer be amongst the league leaders in carries either.  Also, Despite having talent at the TE position in Cincy (Gresham, Eifert), Gruden never turned either of those guys into top notch fantasy options.  Gresham was emerging in 2012, but fell back again this past year.  What will this mean for promising Jordan Reed?  I suspect it will mean a step backwards.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Out: Greg Schiano
In: Lovie Smith

Schiano's term as the Tampa Head Coach came to an end after another very disappointing season.  From a fantasy perspective, owners still got production from Vincent Jackson, and a year ago from Doug Martin, but other than those two, there was not another player worth rostering from the Bucs.

Now the Glazers are working to get the band back together, returning to their Super Bowl roots from earlier this century.  They have welcomed home Lovie Smith, and he will be calling the shots on the sidelines, and in the draft room.  So what can we expect based on his fantasy results while leading the Bears?  We can start on defense, as that has always been Lovie's calling card.  Lovie can get exceptional production from a defense, and with the talent on that side of the ball in Tampa, the results can be immediate.  McCoy is one of the two best at his position on the defense.  Levonte David is growing into a Derrick Brooks type of impact player.  Mason Foster is another highly skilled linebacker.  Goldson, Barron, and Revis make for one of the scariest secondaries in the whole league.  Last season, the Bucs defense was average from a fantasy perspective.  Next year, they will be very high on my draft board, as I expect them to return to one of the elite defenses to own.

On the offense however, things will be a little different.  The QB will impact a lot of the other guys stats, and in Tampa, the first thing Lovie needs to do is to determine of Glennon will be his guy.  Smith hired QB guru, Jeff Tedford (former HC at Cal) to be his OC, so either Glennon or whomever they choose to replace him should have a good mentor from which to learn.  Having said that, I think the offense in Tampa could take some time to gel.  I think V-Jax will still get his catches and yards, but I am not expecting too much from the rest of this offense next season.  If Martin returns healthy, he is worth a flyer, but I would not have in in the top 5 as so many folks did this past year.


Tennessee Titans
Out: Mike Munchak
In: Ken Whisenhunt

After very middle of the road performances from the Tennesse Titans over the past few years, the organization opted to part with Munchak.  From a fantasy perspective, fans have to be somewhat pleased by this development, as there has not been too much to be happy about with Mike at the helm.  Chris Johnson has been big hit or big miss each week, and that type of inconsistency is maddening to a fantasy owner, and is certainly not the way to win championships.

Now enter Ken Whisenhunt.  Wis is on his second go as a head coach in the league, after serving in that role for the Arizona Cardinals. During his time in Arizona, we saw some production from his players, but not elite production.  The lone exception was with Larry Fitzgerald.  Much of the struggles came from not being able to find a QB to captain his ship though.  Last season, he returned to an OC role, and now he is credited largely for the turnaround of Chargers QB Phillip Rivers.  Can he do the same thing with Jake Locker?  Will he look to the draft for a new QB?  Should so much credit for the turn around of the Bolts be given to Whisenhunt?

The answers to these questions will largely determine what we can expect from Tennessee next year.  What we do know is this.  Whisenhunt will run the football.  He did it in San D, Arizona, and Pittsburgh before that.  We also know he prefers a power run game.  This is not Chris Johnson's forte.  I think ultimately Whisenhunt will try and convince the organization to deal Johnson for assets, and allow him to get a back who better fits his system.  I fully expect to see the Titans to look for a more powerful back in this May's draft.  Either way, I see the impact on CJ's 2014 stats to be a negative one.  At the other skill positions, it will all come down to the QB.  If Whisenhunt can get Rivers-like (or even Roethlisberger-like) production from Locker, than guys like Kendall Wright will see an rise in their production and corresponding fantasy value.  If Locker is not the answer, and Whisenhunt cannot find another QB who is, fantasy owners will want to avoid the skill players in Tennessee altogether.  Conversely though, I think you can expect the Titans defense to take some steps forward in 2014.  Not to the extent of the Bucs, but they should remain on your watch list if you play the defensive match-ups week to week.

There are still some jobs up for grabs.  Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit all still have to find new sideline leaders, and each of these hires will have an impact on your eventual 2014 draft board.  You will be able to find our thoughts on those hires, as well as many other topics right here all offseason long.

So, until next time...