Musings - 2015 Early Free Agency Thoughts

The NFL's "legal tampering period" has begun, so although no deals, including trades, can become official until Tuesday (the start of the new NFL League Year), I wanted to share some thoughts on some of the early breaking news of stars in new homes.  As with any other move, it's easy to give opinions on looking at the move in a bubble, but we all know that each move has an impact on other moves still to come (or moves that won't happen now).  Also, as with any prognostication, the full impact of the move could be years away from being realized.  Still, talking about all of these changes is too much fun to miss out on, so here is the next in our 'Musings' series.

LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for Kiko Alonzo

Chip Kelly's quest to remake the Eagles in the Oregon Ducks image continued this offseason, as the team dealt arguably their best player to Buffalo in exchange for a former Duck who is coming off missing an entire year due to an recurring injury.

I'm not trying to downplay Philly's excess at RB, nor their need at LB.  I'm also not going to say Alonzo is not a talent, because his rookie year in Buffalo proved he is.  But still, I am left wondering if this was really the best haul the Eagles could have gotten for their star back.

In Buffalo, I think McCoy will excel.  Rex Ryan took the Jets to the AFC championship game in his first two years in New York, on the back of some excellent defense and a stout running game.  The Bills already have a good defense in position, and now have the running back he can lean on.  I'm not predicting an AFC Title Game appearance for the Bills this year, but, I am buying on McCoy being a big producer in Buffalo.

If Kiko Alonzo can stay healthy, and this is a big if, the Eagles will have filled an area of need with a very good ball player who knows the system and culture his coach wants.  This cannot be overlooked.  However, I am not sold that putting the band back together will lead Chip Kelly to the promised land in the NFL.  Remember, how many National Titles did the Ducks win under Kelly's watch?  Will they be fun to watch.  Probably.  But the Eagles fan base is a serious group, and they want titles, not touchdowns.  Although his team will be athletic and pose problems for the opposition, I'm not sure this move gets them closer to a Superbowl, and isn't that the goal?

Ndamukong Suh to Miami

Even though it is not official yet, it seems that the race for the big prize of the NFL Free Agency period is already over.  Today, Chris Mortensen reported that the Miami Dolphins have agreed to make Suh the highest paid defensive player in NFL history.  Since the report was confirmed by Adam Schefter and Ian Rappaport, this makes 3 of the 4 on my Mount Rushmore of NFL insiders (John Clayton is the fourth), I have faith this is true.  Within minutes of the story breaking, I started fielding questions about my thoughts on this move, so here they are.

Pros: Suh is a force on the defensive front.  He is a run stuffer extraordinaire, and his presence will free up the LBs to make plays and the DEs to get pressure.  This will help the whole defense immediately.  He is a mean man in the trenches, and this will make all of the QBs he faces uneasy.  I am sure Brady wont be sleeping well tonight.

Cons: Suh's name carries more weight than his overall game right now.  I wouldn't call him one dimensional, but, his game against the run far exceeds his performance against the pass.  Calling him the best free agent since Reggie White is absurd.  Further, he is not a better defender than JJ Watt, so paying him like that is a bad move.  Finally, this contract can quickly become an albatross for the Phins.  Signing Suh at this figure will prevent Miami for making other moves which would help the team improve.  I think they would have been better off signing Mike Iupati, Brooks Reed, and reupping with Jared Odrick for less money combined, than adding Suh.

Bottom line here is that Miami has gotten better.  They landed the big fish (bad pun intended) of this class, but unfortunately, since they were not 1 player away from the Lonbardi Trophy, I think they came up short.  Expensive, but short.


Byron Maxwell and Frank Gore to Philly
No doubt it would have been nice for Bay Area fans to have watched Frank Gore finish his career in San Francisco, but it does not look like this will be the case.  He is reportedly going to join Darren Sproles in the Philly backfield next year.  In addition, the Eagles will address their need at corner by adding the best corner on the market with Byron Maxwell.

Overall, I like both of these moves.  The Eagles have to get better against the pass, and Maxwell has been learning under the game's best defenses since coming into the league.  I think he is ready for a bigger role, and in Philly he will get it.  His grit will play well with the fans and the media and help bring a blue collar attitude back to this defense.

Frank Gore is not the player he was even three years ago, but as long as the Eagles understand that he is not LeSean McCoy, and instead use him as a change of pace to Darren Sproles, I think this will also be a good signing.  Gore is an excellent locker room guy, and although he has a lot of miles on his wheels, I still think he can contribute in a more limited role.


Ingram, Cobb, Flowers, and Jackson all Resign
Sometimes the best moves a team makes in free agency are the moves to keep their players from skipping town.  With the four names above, I think that will apply.

Mark Ingram has been a disappointment for much of his time in New Orleans, but last year he started to flash.  Clearly Micky Loomis and company feel this was the start of something more, because they chose to prevent him from leaving town.  If Ingram continues to build on his performance from a year ago, this will be a win for both sides.

Randall Cobb is in the perfect system for his talents.  In fact right now it can be argued he is the best number two receiver in the game today.  Staying in Green Bay will allow for that team to continue to click offensively.  Granted, I think the Pack paying 10M/year for a number two is steep, but I think it would have been more costly for the team to have watched him walk out the door.

Two years ago, Brandon Flowers was a free agency bust in Kansas City.  Last year, he joined the Chargers, and along with rookie Jason Verrett, formed one of the better CB duos in the league.  For the Chargers to continue their assent towards the top of the AFC, they had to keep Flowers, and they did.  I really like this pair of corners, and it will allow the Bolts to focus on other areas of need.

For the first year or three of his career, I called Kareem Jackson a bust.  I thought the Texans completely missed by drafting this kid.  Fast forward to today, and I applaud the organization for bringing him back.  Each year as a pro, Jackson has gotten better.  He will not be confused for Darrell Revis or Richard Sherman any time soon, but he is now a better than average starter in the league.  Had he left, he would have been overpaid by someone to be their savior at corner, and I think that could have ended badly for both sides.  Staying however, will allow him to continue to improve in a system he knows, where the expectations are clear, known, and reasonable.  The Texans are a team on the rise, so keeping him in Houston I think was smart for them too.


As the frenzy that will be the next 7 days continues to unfold, I will continue to post some additional musings.  Until then, enjoy this week.  Right now, everyone is in first place, and your team will make some moves which could place them on a "path to a championship."



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Musings - Pre Free Agency

As we now approach the free agency frenzy that will no doubt ensue as soon as the clock strikes 4pm tomorrow afternoon, it is time to take a look at what we believe are some of the most key free agents available.  Not all of these players will make a fantasy impact next year, but if we think this player could in fact have an impact on fantasy stats, we will point it out too.


1. Jairus Byrd, S  

Jarius Byrd is the prize of this year's free agent class.  In fact, he is the only game changer available on the open market this year.  He is the best safety in the league right now, and despite Buffalo's attempt to make him the highest paid safety he is looking for even more.  Word has it that he wants 9M per year, which is crazy money for a safety.  Still, in the right system, he could put them over the top.

Fantasy Impact:  Minimal.  Obviously only in IDP formats.

Good Fits: PIT, IND, SF


2. Jared Veldheer, OT

There has been a lot of chatter about the three top o-tackles who are available in this group.  Depending on whom you speak with, any one of the three could be the best.  Still, we like Veldheer as the best of the three, and here is why.  Albert is a great pass protector, but he is not much against the run, and he cannot seem to stay healthy.  Monroe has all of the tools you want in a tackle, and although he has played well, he has still had two teams already say they would rather move on without him than to pay him.  Veldheer is a giant of a man, he is young, he still has room to get better, and he will come for less money than either of the other two.  I really think Oakland was crazy to let him hit the market without even a transition tag.

Fantasy Impact: None

Good Fits: OAK, MIA, SD, ATL


3. Lamarr Houston, DE

Another odd move by the Raiders.  I do not understand how Reggie McKenzie could allow his two best young talents to hit the open market, but that is what he did.  With Michael Bennett off the board now (resigned with SEA), Houston is the top DE left (yes, even better than Michael Johnson).  He is young, very strong, and what separates him from guys like Michael Johnson is that his best football is still in front of him.  He is not a prototypical pass rusher, but he can play both the run and the pass well.  I think there will be a lot of teams looking at Houston as soon as the bell rings.

Fantasy Impact: None

Good Fits: OAK, DAL, ATL, CHI, TEN


4. Aquib Talib, CB

In a pass happy NFL, it can be argued that a shut-down corner is as important as a pass rushing DE for a defense.  That being said, Aquib Talib is the best of this year's class.  Some folks rate Alterraun Verner higher, but I think Talib's size and physical play make him the better bet in this free agent crop.  New England did not franchise him, and that is understandable based on finances, but despite some questions about his personality, they will absolutely be in the mix to bring him back for next year.

Fantasy Impact: Minimal.  Obviously, only in IDP formats.

Good Fits: NE, SF, DEN, PIT


5. Alex Mack, C

Ask any QB and they will be the first to tell you how important the Center is to them, and the football team.  They have to have the right mental makeup to make the line call, snap the ball, and still get their head up to block.  You want your center to be smart, mean, and nasty.  If they are young and durable, even better.  Alex Mack is all of the above.  Cleveland was smart to Transition Tag him, and it is exceptionally unlikely that Ray Farmer will let him get away, especially considering how much cap room the Browns have.  But word is Mack wants out, so maybe... just maybe, Farmer works a sign and trade type deal to get something for Mack while parting with an unhappy guy.

Fantasy Impact: None

Good Fits: CLE, GB, IND, NE


6. Braden Albert, OT
7. Eric Decker, WR
8. Michael Johnson, DE
9. Eugene Monroe, OT
10. Alturran Verner, CB


High Value Propositions
For one reason or another, these guys will all be available and good deliver major upside for their next teams.  Considering they will should be available for reasonable contracts, or one-year prove-it deals, this has the potential for a big payoff for the buyer.

1. Henry Melton, DT
2. TJ Ward, S
3. Linval Joseph, DT
4. BJ Raji, DT
5. Louis Delmas, S (Signed by MIA)
6. Antoine Bethea, S
7. Andre Roberts, WR
8. Rashard Jennings, RB
9. Brandon Spikes, LB
10. Jon Asamoah, G


Buyer Beware
Exactly the opposite of the guys in the previous section, these guys are likely to command a higher contract than what they deserve.  Most of these guys have already played their best football, and will likely be a regrettable contract in a season or two.

1. Jared Allen, DE
2. Justin Tuck, DE
3. Antonio Cromartie, CB
4. Darren McFadden, RB
5. Knowshon Moreno, RB


Fantasy Impacts
The guys on this list have the best chance of making a fantasy impact with their impending team change.  For some, it could be the move to turn them into fantasy relevance.  For others, expect their fantasy impact to take a dive unless they fall into the perfect system.  Until we learn where they will take snaps next year, we cannot tell which direction they will turn.

1. Darren Sproles, RB
2. Eric Decker, WR
3. Hakeem Nicks, WR
4. Ben Tate, RB
5. James Jones, WR

Musings - The Cleveland Browns

So in the previous musings, we talked about some of the moves that the Cleveland Browns had been making, and how I felt they were uncharacteristically poor decisions being made by Michael Lombardi, who I have a very high opinion of.  Today, I learned why I felt the moves being made were uncharacteristic of Michael Lombardi.  It was because they were not his moves at all.

This morning, Michael Lombardi was relieved of his duties with the Cleveland Browns. After this, Browns owner Jimmy Haslam went on TV and again looked the part of total buffoon, talking about how he will continue to advance the Browns towards their ultimate goal.

Jimmy, let me let you in on something.  Your decision to hire Mike Lombardi as your decision maker for all football matters was your one and only smart decision you have made as an owner thus far.  Your subsequent decision to not let him make football related decision, then fire him, reinforces my well established opinion that stupid people with lots of money... are still stupid.

Lets take a quick look at your offseason so far.  First you fire Rob Chudzinski, after just one season.  Now I don't have any strong affinity for Chudzinski, however, he had one year, and a roster that has some serious talent deficiencies to content with, lowlighted by the total absence of anything resembling a Quarterback.  What more could he have really done?  Heck, what more could Vince Lombardi, Tom Landry, Don Shula, or Bill Walsh have done?  Firing him after just one year sure doesn't show any kind of commitment to the franchise, their fans, or winning.  And how do you think it will make you appear to potential replacement?  Well lets see how that worked out.  Adam Gase was a target, but he said "no thanks".  Todd Bowles was looked at, but he too withdrew his name from consideration. Now both Gase and Bowles are each looking for their first permanent head coaching position, but each chose to stay a coordinator for another season rather than go to work for Haslem.  Then the team looked at Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels, who although good as a coordinator, really made a mess of his first head coaching opportunity in Denver a few years back.  Even despite the long history between Lombardi and McDaniels, McDaniels also bowed out of the process. Then to add insult to injury, the Packers QB coach, Ben McAdoo chose to accept a coordinators position with the Giants right before it looked like he would get the gig in Cleveland.  That's right Jimmy, a position coach took a lower position in the league to avoid getting hired by you.  Finally, the team chose Mike Pettine to lead the way. Now I like Pettine, and I think he will bring a tough defensive mentality to Cleveland, but again, that was not the primary weakness of this team last season.

Then, to further the train wreck that is the Browns, the brilliant leadership decides to let one of the best coordinator combinations in the league (Norv Turner and Ray Horton) both walk away, and instead chooses the under performing Kyle Shannahan to try and resurrect this horrid offense.  Really Jimmy?  On what planet is Kyle Shannahan a better offensive coach than Norv Turner?  The loss of Horton will hurt too, but it can at least be softened by the addition of Pettine.

Seriously Jimmy, you have owned the team for a year and a half, and in that time span, you have fired two head coaches, and two GMs.  If you look at the teams that are perennial contenders, you see that the one thing they have in common is stability.  The are consistent in their approach to both staffing and player acquisition.  They put the system in place, then supply the system with the type of players and coaches that can get the most from it.  That is what the Patriots have done.  That is what the Niners have done.  Seattle, check; Green Bay, yes sir; Pittsburgh and Baltimore, absolutely.  Now look at the other side of the coin.  Look at the teams that are all over the board on their personnel decisions.  Oakland, Miami, Jacksonville, and Tampa all come to mind.  So lets do a quick survey.  Would you rather your team be mentioned in the same sentence with New England, Green Bay, San Francisco, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, or would you rather continue to be grouped with the Oakland Raiders of the league?

Jimmy, it is clear that you know how to make money.  You inherited a lot of money, and you have been the leader of the Flying J corporation for some time now.  You are listed among the Forbes 400 richest Americans each year.  Your net worth is almost 1.5 Billion dollars.  But a management lesson or two was clearly overlooked.  You should know by now that no one is all knowing.  You have a lot of gifts which you bring to the table, but you do not know squat about football.  Leadership is not just about being out front.  It is about understanding your own weaknesses, and offsetting them by surrounding yourself with folks for whom those are strengths.  Then, you have to take your hands of the reigns a bit, and let them do what made them special enough for you to hire them in the first place.  Until you learn to do this, well, I guess the fans in Cleveland will have some more cold winters to endure.

Musings - Head Coach Changes Part 2

In our last musings, we posted our thoughts on the first wave of head coaching changes including the hirings of Bill O'Brien, Jay Gruden, Lovie Smith, and Ken Whisenhunt.  Today's musing will focus on the final three head coaching changes this offseason.

Detroit Lions
Out: Jim Schwartz
In: Jim Caldwell

When Ken Whisenhunt accepted the job to take over the Tennessee Titans, the Lions reportedly lost their top candidate.  Despite this, the team almost immediately after, named Jim Caldwell their new head coach.  Most experienced fantasy football players were very familiar with the wide open style that Jim Schwartz ran while in Detroit, making names like Stafford, Megatron, and Reggie Bush sought after commodities in the world of fantasy football.  Now owners of these players, as well as potential owners are all left wondering how will Jim Caldwell impact this.

Jim Caldwell has a well established reputation in the NFL as a "quarterback whisperer".  He really seems to get the most out of his quarterbacks, mainly by refining their mechanics, and putting them in position to succeed.  Caldwell comes from the Tony Dungy coaching tree, and in his first NFL head coaching gig, he replaced Dungy as the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts.  Caldwell had the benefit of having one of the best ever at the position, Peyton Manning, as his quarterback there, and the results were just great.  Manning continued to play at a high level under Caldwell, and also spoke highly of Caldwell's tutelage. When Manning got hurt, and the wheels fell of the bus in Indy, Caldwell was fired, and he resurfaced on John Harbaugh's staff in Baltimore.  2 years ago, he replaced Cam Cameron as the OC and play caller in Baltimore, and immediately after the switch, Raven's QB Joe Flacco began a tear that resulted in excellent production, a playoff bid, a Super Bowl win, and a very big contract extension.

In Detroit, Caldwell has another immense talent to work with.  Matt Stafford has all of the tools necessary to be a very successful player (both real world and fantasy).  However, he has some mechanical issues which have prevented him from taking that step from Tier 2 QB to an elite Tier 1 player.  I believe the issue with Stafford begins with his footwork, and a coach like Caldwell is uniquely situated to help him fix these problems.  If Caldwell can get Stafford to put in the work, he will help him fix the mechanical issues.  This would result in more consistent performances, and better overall production.  Based on this, I am projecting Stafford, and subsequently Calvin Johnson, to start off slower than what we have seen in the past, but by the end of the year both players should be putting up their traditional numbers, maybe even better. Unfortunately, the projection for Reggie Bush is not as rosy.  In Caldwell offenses, the RBs that have been successful are more traditional backs (Ray Rice).  Bush is more of a scat back, who receives well out of the backfield.  As a result, I expect his fantasy production to drop off a little.  Joique Bell however could see a boost in performance as he is more suited for a traditional RB workload.


Minnesota Vikings
Out: Leslie Frasier
In: Mike Zimmer

From the moment Les Frazier was fired in Minnesota fantasy football players everywhere were waiting with baited breath to figure out what could happen with perennial fantasy superstar Adrian Peterson.  There was a lot of chatter about Minnesota's ownership looking for a coach who could continue to feature their franchise back.

The team chose Mike Zimmer to lead the way.  Zimmer is a well known, highly respected defensive mind, with a very strong personality.  His history of saying what is on his mind has prevented him in the past from getting the top job, but Minnesota was willing to take him lock-stock-and-barrel.  So what will this mean for the Vikes and their players.  Since Zimmer is a defensive minded coach, we can expect to see an uptick from the Vikings defense and their individual defensive players.  Zimmer has always been able to get excellent production from his defense, and there is no reason for anyone to assume that his time in Minnesota will be any different.  As far as team defenses go, Minnesota will be a good under the radar team to keep your eyes on.

As for the offense, to see production, Zimmer was going to have to hire a strong offensive coordinator.  He hit the fantasy jackpot with his hire of NFL veteran Norv Turner.  Turner is one of the best running back mentors in the game.  He has coached the likes of Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson to the pinnacle of success.  Now he gets his hands on the most talented running back in the game today.  Peterson is in line to put up very special numbers with Turner as his OC.  As for the receivers and tight ends though, there a more tempered optimism.  Cordarrelle Patterson has some real upside, but it may take a while before he hits his fantasy stride.  Greg Jennings is an established talent, but he too cant be counted on as a star.  All of this is because of the significant question marks at the quarterback position.  Zimmer will have his work cut out for him to turn this team back into a playoff squad.


Cleveland Browns
Out: Rob Chudzinski
In: Mike Pettine

As I have mentioned in previous posts, I have a lot of respect for Mike Lombardi, the GM of the Cleveland Browns.  I believe he has an excellent eye for talent, and I feel if given some time he will help turn the Browns around.  Having said all of that, I really do feel like he made a total mess of the head coaching situation in Cleveland.  He fired Rob Chudzinski after only one season, and then had a multitude of head coaching candidates exclude themself from consideration.  Finally, the team offered the job to a coach who was willing to take the gig, Mike Pettine.

Pettine comes to Cleveland from Buffalo where he served as the defensive coordinator.  He did a good job with the Bills defense, but he is the least accomplished of the three defensive guys who earned head coaching jobs this offseason.  Pettine manages an aggressive defense, and with the talent on that side of the ball for the Browns, we can see some production from the Cleveland Team Defense.  As for the offense, Pettine is another coach who needed a strong OC hire to make his offense relevant from a fantasy football perspective.

So who did Pettine pick to run his offense, Kyle Shannahan.  Shannahan was his dad's OC for the last few seasons in Washington, and when the father was let go, so was the son.  The truth is, Kyle Shannahan's resume is a bit checkered. It did pretty well when he was with the Texans, but I think he really struggled in Washington.  Considering the talent he is inheriting in Cleveland is no where near what he had in his previous two stops, I have real concerns about what we can expect from the skill positions for the Browns.  Josh Gordon is exceptional.  He really makes things happen regardless of who he has throwing him the ball.  With his exceptional production this past year,  Gordon will be a hot name during draft time.  Jordan Cameron is the TE, and he too put up surprisingly good numbers this past year.  Unfortunately for him, with Shannahan calling the plays, and the worst QB situation in the NFL, I don't believe he will duplicate his 2013 statistics.  The Browns also need to find an answer at the RB position.  They do have a lot of picks in this May's NFL Draft to help bolster the roster though.

Musings - Head Coach Changes

Often, the Ginny and I are asked our thoughts on certain NFL Fantasy Football related topics.  Usually we have the show as an avenue to share our thoughts.  With this being the offseason though, the show is on a less frequent schedule.  Still, lots of things are still happening in the NFL world, and these things have to potential to strongly impact what the reality will be during the 2014 season.  

These Musings posts will be an opportunity for Ginny and I to share our thoughts on some of these happenings, and discuss how these changes can impact you during your next fantasy draft.  Today, I want to focus on the Head Coaching changes that have already occurred.

Houston Texans                                                   
Out: Gary Kubiak
In: Bill O'Brien

Gary Kubiak is a good NFL coach, and has a system which is fairly fantasy friendly.  Arian Foster reached elite status under Kubiak, and Andre Johnson was an upper Tier 2 WR.  Ben Tate was a viable fantasy RB in his backup role, Matt Schaub was a good, albeit not great fantasy QB, and the defense was one of the league's top fantasy units. All of this was really only one year ago.  But this past season, the wheels fell completely off the bus.

Now the Texans tap former Penn State HC Bill O'Brien to lead the way.  From a fantasy perspective, we can not really be sure what we will get with O'Brien.  Often college systems, don't translate the same way in the pros.  O'Brien does come from the Belichick coaching tree however, so we can assume there has been some significant influence there.  If that is the case, the results could be mixed.  Much of the Patriots success from a fantasy perspective (and arguably from a NFL perspective too) come from how great a fit QB, Tom Brady is for that system.  If O'Brien is going to have similar success, he has to find his future signal caller.  The current QBs (Schaub, Keenum, Yates) don't seem to be that guy.  They do however have the first overall pick in May's NFL Draft.  Right now, you have to imagine that it will be either Teddy Bridgewater or Blake Bortles under center next season for Houston.  Unfortunately, I'm not sold on either as a potential elite NFL QB.  To be fair however, I'm not sold on any QB from this coming class as potentially elite.  What this means is some growing pains for the Texans.  Defenses will stack the box, and this will further limit the upside for the previously elite Houston run game.  Andre Johnson should still be a viable fantasy starter, but I would not predict star numbers from him either.  The defense though has some really good pieces in place, and with Romeo Crennel taking over as the DC, I think they could begin to return to form in 2014.  Elite again?  Probably not yet.  Middle of the pack to above average?  Absolutely.


Washington Redskins
Out: Mike Shannahan
In: Jay Gruden

Mike Shannahan is a legendary NFL Head Coach, one of the best of this generation.  He won two Super Bowls with Denver, and although he got great production from a fantasy perspective from his QB (read: John Elway), his biggest impact was from his running game where he turned player after player into fantasy gold (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Peyton Hillis).  When he arrived in Washington, we saw more of the same from the RB position (Alfred Morris), but it was his inability to get the most from franchise QB RG3 that ultimately sunk his ship.

Now the helm is under the control of Jay Gruden, a first time NFL Head Coach.  From his days in the arena league, Gruden was know to be able to generate offense, and after serving the the OC for the past few seasons in Cincinnati, we can see why.  So what could this mean for Washington next year? First, youhave to imagine that Gruden will work to take advantage of the incredible talent that is RG3.  I was expecting a better year for Griffin anyhow, but I think with Gruden his upside is even higher.  I also think Gruden will get solid numbers from the receiving corp.  With the Bengals, we saw elite production from AJ Green, but we also saw guys like Marvin Jones (2013) and Mohammed Sanu (2012) put up nice numbers too.  The player most likely to serve as the one in Washington is Garcon, and although he has already been very productive, it is fair to look for another bump up from him.  The question will be if Leonard Hankerson can take another step forward in 2014.  Gruden's offense will sure present him with that opportunity.

The only potential negatives I see is in the run game and at TE.  Alfred Morris was the focal point of Shannahan's offense, and under Gruden this will not be the case.  Morris should not plummet into fantasy obscurity, but he will no longer be amongst the league leaders in carries either.  Also, Despite having talent at the TE position in Cincy (Gresham, Eifert), Gruden never turned either of those guys into top notch fantasy options.  Gresham was emerging in 2012, but fell back again this past year.  What will this mean for promising Jordan Reed?  I suspect it will mean a step backwards.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Out: Greg Schiano
In: Lovie Smith

Schiano's term as the Tampa Head Coach came to an end after another very disappointing season.  From a fantasy perspective, owners still got production from Vincent Jackson, and a year ago from Doug Martin, but other than those two, there was not another player worth rostering from the Bucs.

Now the Glazers are working to get the band back together, returning to their Super Bowl roots from earlier this century.  They have welcomed home Lovie Smith, and he will be calling the shots on the sidelines, and in the draft room.  So what can we expect based on his fantasy results while leading the Bears?  We can start on defense, as that has always been Lovie's calling card.  Lovie can get exceptional production from a defense, and with the talent on that side of the ball in Tampa, the results can be immediate.  McCoy is one of the two best at his position on the defense.  Levonte David is growing into a Derrick Brooks type of impact player.  Mason Foster is another highly skilled linebacker.  Goldson, Barron, and Revis make for one of the scariest secondaries in the whole league.  Last season, the Bucs defense was average from a fantasy perspective.  Next year, they will be very high on my draft board, as I expect them to return to one of the elite defenses to own.

On the offense however, things will be a little different.  The QB will impact a lot of the other guys stats, and in Tampa, the first thing Lovie needs to do is to determine of Glennon will be his guy.  Smith hired QB guru, Jeff Tedford (former HC at Cal) to be his OC, so either Glennon or whomever they choose to replace him should have a good mentor from which to learn.  Having said that, I think the offense in Tampa could take some time to gel.  I think V-Jax will still get his catches and yards, but I am not expecting too much from the rest of this offense next season.  If Martin returns healthy, he is worth a flyer, but I would not have in in the top 5 as so many folks did this past year.


Tennessee Titans
Out: Mike Munchak
In: Ken Whisenhunt

After very middle of the road performances from the Tennesse Titans over the past few years, the organization opted to part with Munchak.  From a fantasy perspective, fans have to be somewhat pleased by this development, as there has not been too much to be happy about with Mike at the helm.  Chris Johnson has been big hit or big miss each week, and that type of inconsistency is maddening to a fantasy owner, and is certainly not the way to win championships.

Now enter Ken Whisenhunt.  Wis is on his second go as a head coach in the league, after serving in that role for the Arizona Cardinals. During his time in Arizona, we saw some production from his players, but not elite production.  The lone exception was with Larry Fitzgerald.  Much of the struggles came from not being able to find a QB to captain his ship though.  Last season, he returned to an OC role, and now he is credited largely for the turnaround of Chargers QB Phillip Rivers.  Can he do the same thing with Jake Locker?  Will he look to the draft for a new QB?  Should so much credit for the turn around of the Bolts be given to Whisenhunt?

The answers to these questions will largely determine what we can expect from Tennessee next year.  What we do know is this.  Whisenhunt will run the football.  He did it in San D, Arizona, and Pittsburgh before that.  We also know he prefers a power run game.  This is not Chris Johnson's forte.  I think ultimately Whisenhunt will try and convince the organization to deal Johnson for assets, and allow him to get a back who better fits his system.  I fully expect to see the Titans to look for a more powerful back in this May's draft.  Either way, I see the impact on CJ's 2014 stats to be a negative one.  At the other skill positions, it will all come down to the QB.  If Whisenhunt can get Rivers-like (or even Roethlisberger-like) production from Locker, than guys like Kendall Wright will see an rise in their production and corresponding fantasy value.  If Locker is not the answer, and Whisenhunt cannot find another QB who is, fantasy owners will want to avoid the skill players in Tennessee altogether.  Conversely though, I think you can expect the Titans defense to take some steps forward in 2014.  Not to the extent of the Bucs, but they should remain on your watch list if you play the defensive match-ups week to week.

There are still some jobs up for grabs.  Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit all still have to find new sideline leaders, and each of these hires will have an impact on your eventual 2014 draft board.  You will be able to find our thoughts on those hires, as well as many other topics right here all offseason long.

So, until next time...