The 2015 NFL Draft is now in the books. We have seen all of the deals, and all of the picks. It is my strong belief that there is no way to really grade a draft this early, especially before any of these players have taken the field. Who really knows how this will play out. Remember, there are more un-drafted free agents in the NFL Hall of Fame than there are former Heisman Trophy winners.
Still, our nature as fans, and as humans in general, we want to know how well our teams did, so I will take a stab at it, beginning with the bottom 11 teams.
Let me tell you a little about the grading system first though. Every pick was given an individual number grade which was calculated using a bunch of different inputs. These inputs include my assessment of the player's overall potential, my assessment of their overall likely production, my assessment of their fit in the system they were drafted in, how much value was gotten by the team in selecting the player (ie, drafted to early, or stolen late), and how well the team utilized the pick (ie, picked the right player at the right position, or the value generated by either trading up, down, or staying put). Because these grades are system dependent, the same player, drafted at the same spot in the draft, may have different grades based on the team that selected them.
Once these numbers were assigned, all of the numbers were put into an algorithm which then output a final numerical grade, and then, ultimately sorts all of the numeric grades into a curved letter grading system. Because there was a curve, there would be A's and F's.
Keep this in mind, not all F's were created equal. An F could be assigned if I feel the player really doesn't fit the system, was way too high of a reach, or if I don't see the player making the team, and thus really generating no value for the team.
Once all of the player grades were established, the team grades were calculated by averaging the player grades and then scaling again to spread the results across a normalized distribution.
Not everyone will agree with all of my grades, and that is fine. Until we are a few years into these guys careers, we won't know.
So, lets start from the bottom and work our way up.
32. Carolina Panthers (F)
1.25 - Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington (D)
2.09 - Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan (C)
4.03 - Daryl Williams, OT, Oklahoma (C-)
5.33 - David Mayo, LB, Texas Southern (C-)
5.38 - Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Auburn (C)
It's telling that the guy from this team's draft I liked the best, was drafted at the back end of the 5th, and the team had the worst graded 1st round pick of anyone. When you reach for a guy like Thompson, who is athletic, but still may have been available 20 picks later, you dig a whole that is hard to get out of. Unfortunately for Carolina, with Thomas Davis still in the fold at LB, Thompson is not a starter on this team come August. In fact, I am not sure any of these five guys are in the starting line-up at the beginning of the season, and for a team with some holes, that is an issue.
31. Denver Broncos (D)
1.23 - Shane Ray, DE, Missouri (C)
2.27 - Ty Sambrailo, OT Colorado State (C-)
3.28 - Jeff Heuerman, TE, Ohio State (A-)
4.34 - Max Garcia, C, Florida (C+)
5.28 - Lorenzo Doss, CB, Tulane (F)
6.27 - Darius Klingo, DT, Maryland (F)
7.33 - Trevor Siemian, QB, Northwestern (F)
7.34 - Taurean Nixon, DB, Tulane (F)
7.35 - Josh Furman, DB, Oklahoma State (F)
For Denver, they really missed on some good opportunities here, and made some significant gambles early on. I think it was poor decision making to trade up for an overrated, one dimensional pass rusher with a pot problem to a Colorado city. The team did need help on the o-line, and Sambrailo is a decent player, but I really thought there were better options on the board when Denver took him. I really do love the fit of Heuerman in this offense. He is an excellent in-line blocker and can develop into a good pass catching threat too. I expect no one taken after the 4th round to even make the Broncos team.
30. San Francisco 49ers (D)
1.17 - Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon (C-)
2.14 - Jaquiski Tartt, S, Samford (D)
3.15 - Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia (B+)
4.18 - Blake Bell, TE, Oklahoma (C-)
4.27 - Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina (F)
4.33 - DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech (D)
5.29 - Bradley Pinion, P, Clemson (F)
6.14 - Ian Silberman, OT, Boston College (C)
7.27 - Trenton Brown, OG, Florida (C-)
7.37 - Busta Anderson, TE, South Carolina (D)
After the first two rounds, I had this draft marked as a disaster in San Fran. I have been stating all along how despite pro size and measurables, Arik Armstead is the classic profile of an underachiever. Then in round two, they add another guy with exceptional measurable in Tartt, but he is as raw as raw can be, and likely could have been had a full round later. The picks of Eli Harold in the third, and Silberman and Brown in rounds 6 and 7 are the only things that saved this draft from being worse than Carolina's. I would have liked to see the Niners address their gaping hole at MLB, which was totally ignored, and then address OG earlier than the 7th, but again, no dice.
29. Buffalo Bills (D)
2.18 - Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State (C)
3.17 - John Miller, OG, Louisville (C)
5.19 - Karlos Williams, RB, Florida State (C-)
6.12 - Tony Steward, LB, Clemson (C-)
6.18 - Nick O'Leary, TE, Florida State (C)
7.17 - Dezmin Lewis, WR, Central Arkansas (C-)
Without a pick in the first and 4th rounds, the Bills had the deck stacked against them for this draft. I guess they decided drafting half their picks from the most talented college fottball team in the nation could save their draft, and it didn't. Darby is an upside player, who gets beat more often than a player of his talent level should. Karlos Williams has shown flashes, but has been more consistently lackluster than one would expect. I do like John Miller, as he could compete for a starting position inside on that line, and I really like the value the team got with Nick O'Leary. He is a classic hard working overachiever, and can be a good weapon for his former college QB, as they get re-united again.
28. Dallas Cowboys (D+)
1.27 - Byron Jones, CB, UConn (C)
2.28 - Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska (B-)
3.27 - Chaz Green, OT, Florida (D)
4.28 - Damien Wilson, LB, Minnesota (C+)
5.27 - Ryan Russell, DE, Perdue (D+)
7.19 - Mark Nzeocha, LB, Wyoming (F)
7.26 - Laurence Gibson, OT, Virginia Tech (F)
7.29 - Geoff Swaim, TE, Texas (D)
Many in the media are knocking Jerry Jones for drafting the troubled Randy Gregory, especially considering they added the troubled Greg Hardy this offseason. I on the other hand, think this was their top pick from this draft. If Gregory can keep things straight in Dallas, he could be the top flight pass rusher they need, and Rod Marinelli has as good a chance as any coach in the NFL of getting through to this kid. Unfortunately, I was entirely underwhelmed by the rest of this draft. Byron Jones was a beast at the Combine, but I have not seen that translate to the tape. Chaz Green is very overrated in my opinion, and I don't expect any of the last 4 picks to put up much of a fight for roster spots.
27. Seattle Seahawks (D+)
2.31 - Frank Clark, DE, Michigan (D)
3.05 - Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State (B)
3.31 - Matt Jones, RB, Florida (C-)
4.31 - Terry Poole, OT, San Diego State (D)
4.35 - Mark Glowinski, OG, West Virginia (C)
5.34 - Tye Smith, CB, Townson (B-)
6.33 - Obum Gwacham, DE, Oregon State (D+)
6.38 - Kristjan Sokoli, DT, Buffalo (D)
7.31 - Ryan Murphy, DB, Oregon State (F)
I find it incredibly difficult to write yet again about how I feel the Seahawks missed the mark, because each year they prove again, and again, that they understand how player fit their system better than anyone. I an very surprised by the Frank Clark pick as their first from this draft. This kid has talent, but very significant and numerous off-field issues, and unless they can turn him around like Bruce Irvin, this was a mistake. I also don't see the attraction for Terry Poole, as I am not sold on his game translating to the pros. I really do like the Lockett pick, and the trade up to get him, and I think they found a gem in Tye Smith in the 5th. Very Seahawks like move.
26. Kansas City Chiefs (D+)
1.18 - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington (B-)
2.17 - Mitch Morse, G/C, Missouri (C-)
3.12 - Chris Conley, WR, Georgia (C+)
3.34 - Stephen Nelson, CB, Oregon State (D)
4.19 - Ramik Wilson, LB, Georgia (C)
5.36 - DJ Alexander, LB, Oregon State (C-)
5.37 - James O'Shaughneesy, TE, Illinois State (C-)
6.41 - Rakeem Nunez Roches, DT, Southern Miss (C)
7.16 - Da'Ron Brown, WR, Northern Illinois (F)
The Chiefs draft started off strong. If the off-field issues for Marcus Peters are behind him, and I believe they are, he could be the top shut-down corner from this class. He has all of the skills, and the right mindset to play on an island in the NFL. Unfortunately, the remaining picks for this team were not as stellar. I like Conley, Wilson, and Nunez Roches a bit, but none of the other picks were particularly strong. I think Mitch Morse can be a good player possibly, but I think the mid second was way too high to take him. He had a 4th round grade on my board.
25. St Louis Rams (D+)
1.10 - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia (B-)
2.25 - Ron Havenstein, OT, Wisconsin (C+)
3.08 - Jamon Brown, OT, Louisville (D)
3.25 - Sean Mannion,QB, Oregon State (D)
4.20 - Andrew Donnal, OT Iowa (C)
6.25 - Bud Sasser, WR, Missouri (C+)
6.39 - Cody Wichmann, OG, Fresno State (F)
7.07 - Bryce Hager, LB, Baylor (C)
7.10 - Martin Ifedi, DE, Maryland (F)
The Rams did some things in this draft I liked. Rob Havenstein could be an excellent tackle in the league with a little more development time; Andrew Donnal plays with a mean streak I love and is technically sound; and Bud Sasser has allof the tools to be an immediate impact on special teams and develop into a very good 2nd receiver in the league. Bryce Hager late was also a nice add for an already good defense. Unfortunately, I think Brown, Mannion, Wichmann, and Ifedi were wasted picks to offset the good ones. This draft will ultimately hinge on the extreme talent of Todd Gurley. If his repaired knee can hold up, on turf, until this team gets to a grass field in LA, then this will have been a very good haul for the Rams, But that is a real risky proposition. The injury was significant, and the risk of turf on a repaired knee cannot be overlooked.
24. Indianapolis Colts (C-)
1.29 - Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami (C)
3.01 - DeJoun Smith, CB, Florida Atlantic (C)
3.29 - Henry Anderson, DE, Stanford (B)
4.10 - Clayton Geathers, S, UCF (D)
5.15 - David Parry, DT, Stanford (C-)
6.29 - Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi State (C-)
6.31 - Amarlo Herrera, LB, Georgia (C-)
7.38 - Denzell Goode, DE, Mars Hill (F)
The first three picks for the Colts all looked good in my book. I have been bullish on Phillip Dorsett for some time now, and he adds to an already talented receiving corp. No doubt the old Hurricane, Andre Johnson, will serve as a role model to this newest one. DeJoun Smith is a very talent corner from Florida Atlantic, who simply needs more development time, and Henry Anderson I think could be one of the best picks of the whole 3rd round in this draft. Josh Robinson too could find himself contributing, but I am not yet sold on him as the RB of the future (and Boom Herron is not that either). Clayton Geathers is overrated and there were much better Safety options still available. This will still be a position of need for this club.
23. Oakland Raiders (C-)
1.04 - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama (A)
2.03 - Mario Edwards, DE, Florida State (C+)
3.04 - Clive Walford, TE, Miami (C)
4.29 - Jon Feliciano, OG, Miami (D)
5.04 - Ben Heeny, LB, Kansas (B-)
5.25 - Nerion Ball, LB, Florida (D+)
6.03 - Max Valles, LB, Virgina (C-)
7.01 - Anthony Morris, OT, Tennessee State (F)
7.04 - Andre Debose, WR, Florida (C-)
7.25 - Dexter McDonald, CB, Kansas (F)
The Raiders did an excellent job of filling a big need with a big talent at the top of the draft. Amari Cooper is a faster version of future hall-of-famer, Reggie Wayne. Ben Heeny was also an excellent selection, which brought great value early in the 5th. The Mario Edwards and Clive Walford selections may also turn out to be good, but both guys bring some concerns. Edwards was inconsistent this past year, and Walford has brought a lot of attitude with him through the pre-draft process. If these guys pan out though, this will have become an excellent draft for the Raiders.
22. Philadelphia Eagles (C-)
1.20 - Nelson Agholor, WR, Southern Cal (C-)
2.15 - Eric Rowe, DB, Utah (B+)
3.20 - Jordan Hicks, LB, Texas (C+)
6.15 - JaCorey Shepherd, CB, Kansas (C+)
6.20 - Randall Evans, CB, Kansas State (D)
7.20 - Brian Mihalik, DE, Boston College (F)
The Eagles did not have a lot to work with, and provided the most first round drama, as they tried unsuccessfully to work a deal for Chip Kelly's college QB, Marcus Mariota. Ultimately, that deal never materialized, and the team instead chose to address a need at wide out. Although the thought was in the right place, I am not nearly as high on Agholor as many others are, and I saw this as a reach. Some compare him to Jeremy Maclin, but I think that is too rosy an outlook. I see his ceiling more as a decent #2 in the league, and you have to net more with the 20th overall selection. I do really like Eric Rowe, whose versatility will be well used by Kelly, and I also like Hicks and Shepherd too. Overall the Eagles did a good job addressing their seconday, but put a lot of stock on Agholor to make this draft.
21. Green Bay Packers (C-)
1.30 - Demarius Randall, S, Arizona State (D)
2.30 - Quentin Rollins, DB, Miami (OH) (B-)
3.30 - Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford (C)
4.30 - Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan (B)
5.11 - Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA (C+)
6.30 - Aaron Ripkowski, FB, Oklahoma (C)
6.34 - Christian Ringo, DE, Louisiana Lafayette (F)
6.37 - Kennard Backman, TE, Alabama-Birmingham (D)
Ted Thompson is one of the best talent evaluators in the history of the NFL. He consistently finds guys that everyone else overlooks. This year, he pulled the trigger and added two of my favorite players from this draft class in Quentin Rollins, and Jake Ryan. Rollins has exceptional talent, and when his experience level catches up, he can be special player in the secondary. Jake Ryan reminds me in many ways of Chris Borland from a year ago. Undersized, but simply a football player. He can simply play because of his smarts and his heart. My biggest concern with this draft is with Demarius Randall at the top. I know he was moving up a lot of boards, but I had quite a few DBs rated a head of him when he was taken. Even if they do convert him to corner, I am still not sold yet. Then again, the Pack has a history for turning unknowns into stars in that secondary.
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